Highlights

  • Origin Energy shares gained 4.57% today, reflecting a 9.42% rise over the past five days.
  • Half-year FY26 statutory profit declined to AUD 557M, while underlying EBITDA reached AUD 1,589M.
  • Analysts maintain a Hold rating with a consensus target of AUD 12.21, signaling moderate upside.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) announced its half-year FY26 results on 12 Feb 2026, reporting a decline in statutory and underlying profits while adjusted cash flow increased. The company’s Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Octopus Energy investments showed mixed outcomes, with retail growth remaining steady.

 Analysts maintain a Hold rating, and the stock has gained over the past month. This article examines segment performance, stock trends, and updated FY26 guidance.

Half-Year FY26 Results Reveal Profit Pressure
Origin Energy Limited reported a statutory profit of AUD 557M for the half-year ended 31 Dec 2025, down from AUD 1,017M in HY25. The company’s underlying profit decreased to AUD 593M from AUD 924M previously, and underlying EBITDA fell to AUD 1,589M versus AUD 1,926M in the prior year.

Adjusted free cash flow improved to AUD 705M, up AUD 187M from HY25, supported by cash generation in Energy Markets and lower tax payments. The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share, consistent with the prior year.

Energy Markets Segment Supports Cash Flow
The Energy Markets segment delivered underlying EBITDA of AUD 860M, driven by higher electricity gross profit, cost reductions, and an increase of 96,000 retail customer accounts. Retail operations strengthened, and grid-scale batteries added portfolio flexibility.

 Integrated Gas performance aligned with expectations, with Australia Pacific LNG production steady at 339 PJ despite lower realized LNG prices and volumes. Origin’s share of Octopus Energy recorded a loss of AUD 89M, reflecting international expansion and smart tariff investments, while Kraken Technologies expanded to 90M global accounts and is set for separation in mid-2026.

Analyst Consensus and Stock Performance
As of 13 Feb 2026, EODHD/Others data shows analysts maintaining a Hold rating on Origin Energy, with a consensus target price of AUD 12.21, implying potential upside of around 2.26% from current levels. Market conditions in Australia’s energy sector temper expectations, although stable operations and modest growth provide some support for investors.

Origin Energy’s share price rose to AUD 12.02 on 13 Feb, up 4.57% on the day. The stock recorded gains of 9.42% over the past five days and 8.82% over the past month. Year-to-date performance shows a 6.04% increase, while the past year reflects an 18.59% gain.

FY26 Guidance and Capital Plans
The company upgraded its FY26 Energy Markets guidance, projecting underlying EBITDA between AUD 1,550–1,750M. Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to range from AUD 900–1,100M, reflecting the Eraring Battery 2 extension. The company continues to focus on expanding its retail customer base and developing technology and analytics capabilities.

With brokerage assessments diverging, Origin Energy is navigating a period marked by cautious profit trends, Energy Markets growth, and continued investment in gas and international segments. Investors are monitoring execution and cash flow outcomes as the company progresses toward its FY26 targets.

FAQs
Q1. What are the latest brokerage ratings for Origin Energy?
Analysts maintain a Hold rating with a consensus target of AUD 12.21, suggesting moderate upside.
Q2. How did Origin Energy perform in HY26?
Statutory profit was AUD 557M, underlying profit was AUD 593M, and underlying EBITDA reached AUD 1,589M.
Q3. What is the FY26 Energy Markets guidance?
Underlying EBITDA is projected between AUD 1,550–1,750M, with capital expenditure of AUD 900–1,100M.