Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Australian share market advanced on Monday, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising 37.40 points, or 0.43%, to close at 8,810.90. Despite the gain, the index has slipped 0.61% over the past five sessions and remains 2.69% below its 52-week high. Six of 11 sectors finished higher, led by Materials, which climbed 2.60% on the day and is up 1.02% for the week. Gains in the sector were underpinned by the rising prices for key commodities, including iron ore, uranium, copper, lithium, and gold prices pushed higher.

Today’s positive session followed a Wall Street rally on Friday, where US markets advanced on optimism over further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which lowered borrowing costs last week for the first time this year.

Macro Update: On Monday, mining stocks surged as Chinese demand for base metals and iron ore improved ahead of a week-long holiday which pushed commodity prices higher. In China, the benchmark lending rates were kept unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in September, in line with market expectations. The steady loan prime rate (LPR) reflects Beijing’s cautious approach to monetary easing amid easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, resilient exports, and a recent stock market rally. Investor sentiment was further supported by President Trump’s announcement of a productive call with China’s Xi Jinping, covering trade, fentanyl, the Ukraine conflict, and a TikTok deal.

Top Market Movers: Reece Limited (ASX: REH) led the gains on Monday, climbing 14.15% to close at AUD 11.78. Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) followed, advancing 13.86% to finish at AUD 5.75, while Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) added 11.58% to end at AUD 7.13. On the downside, Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) recorded the sharpest fall, dropping 8.12% to AUD 1.81. New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) slipped 6.68% to AUD 3.91, and Capstone Copper Ltd (ASX: CSC) declined 4.41% to close at AUD 11.07.

Commodity Update: The dollar held steady on Monday as traders awaited speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the U.S. rate outlook after the central bank resumed easing last week. Gold rose 0.56% to USD 3,726.70, silver gained 2.08% to USD 43.83, and copper inched up 0.10% to USD 10,002.75. Brent crude slipped 0.60% to USD 67.06, weighed down by EU measures targeting Russia’s energy revenues and Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure.

Our Stance: The Australian share market advanced on Monday, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising 0.43% to 8,810.90, extending gains from a positive Wall Street session on Friday amid optimism over further US rate cuts. Sector performance was mixed, with Materials leading the charge on rising commodity prices, while other sectors showed moderate movement. Commodity markets saw mixed trends, with gold, silver, and copper rising, and Brent crude slipping amid EU measures on Russian energy and ongoing Ukrainian strikes. Overall, investors appear cautiously optimistic, supported by commodity strength and US rate cut expectations, but mindful of domestic employment trends and global energy pressures.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 37.40 points to close at 8,810.90, supported by a bullish candlestick and strong trading volumes clear signs of sustained investor confidence. On the daily chart, the index remains below its 21-period SMA, which continues to act as dynamic resistance, maintaining a cautious short-term outlook. A key support zone lies near 8,700; holding above this level is crucial to preserving the current uptrend. Upside momentum would gain further confirmation with a decisive breakout above the 21-SMA, potentially unlocking additional gains and shifting sentiment more firmly toward the bulls. From a broader perspective, the index’s sustained position above the 50-period SMA on the weekly chart underscores a resilient long-term bullish foundation, reinforcing strength across multiple timeframes.