index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed higher on Monday, rising 35.00 points or 0.40% to 8,692.00, and moving back above its 20-day Moving Average. Over the past five sessions, the benchmark index has climbed 2.20%, although it remains broadly flat year-to-date.

Market Breadth was positive, with six of 11 sectors finishing in the green alongside the broader index. The Materials sector led gains, advancing 1.84% on the day and up 3.45% over the past week.

The Australian sharemarket’s uptick was supported by easing energy prices, as Crude Oil slipped below US$100 per barrel. Sentiment improved after US officials indicated that a potential agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate tensions could be nearing completion.

Macro Update: Oil prices dropped nearly 6% on Monday, hitting their lowest levels in two weeks, as market sentiment improved on expectations of a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Optimism increased after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington and Tehran had “largely negotiated” an understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that previously handled around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied Natural Gas trade before recent tensions disrupted flows.

Despite the positive sentiment, major disagreements remain over key issues, including restrictions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, rising U.S. bond yields have emerged as another concern for the White House. According to a White House official, growing anxiety within the administration over fuel prices and Volatility in the Bond Market is putting additional pressure on President Trump’s approach toward Iran, with gasoline prices currently seen as the biggest concern.

Top Market Movers: Top gainers included Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG) at AUD 1.340, up AUD 0.115 (9.387%), Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) at AUD 8.870, up AUD 0.710 (8.701%), and Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) at AUD 6.400, up AUD 0.500 (8.474%). Top decliners were Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR) at AUD 1.990, down AUD 0.120 (-5.688%), Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) at AUD 2.180, down AUD 0.130 (-5.628%), and SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK) at AUD 12.080, down AUD 0.630 (-4.957%).

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened during early Asian trading on Monday amid optimism surrounding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which pressured oil prices below USD 100 per barrel, despite the Trump administration downplaying prospects of an imminent Iran agreement. Gold rose 0.16% to USD 4,563.65, silver advanced 2.38% to USD 78.010, and copper increased 1.08% to USD 13,669.00. Meanwhile, Brent Crude declined 4.71% to USD 95.53 per barrel.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 closed higher on Monday, rising 35.00 points or 0.40% to 8,692.00, moving back above its 20-day moving average and extending weekly gains to 2.20%, though the index remains largely flat year-to-date. Market participation was positive, with six of 11 sectors finishing higher, led by Materials, which gained 1.84% on the day and 3.45% over the week. The advance was supported by softer energy prices, as crude oil slipped below US$100 per barrel amid easing geopolitical risk sentiment linked to potential progress on Iran-US negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Broader commodity moves were mixed, while equities responded to improving risk appetite. However, lingering uncertainty around US bond yields and unresolved geopolitical terms suggests the recovery remains sensitive, with gains still vulnerable to shifts in macro expectations and energy price volatility in the near term.

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 35.00 points in the latest Trading session, forming a bullish candlestick pattern that reflects renewed buying interest and improving short-term market sentiment. Despite the rebound, the index continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains a key dynamic resistance level and may continue to cap near-term upside momentum. From a technical perspective, immediate support is positioned near the 8,600 level. Sustaining above this zone would help preserve the broader short-term recovery structure and support further stabilisation in sentiment. However, a decisive break below the 8,600 mark could weaken the current technical setup, increasing the likelihood of a deeper corrective phase, accompanied by elevated volatility and a more cautious near-term market outlook.