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Index Update: The Australian sharemarket ended higher on Monday, buoyed by optimism ahead of a widely anticipated interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank on Tuesday. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 37.70 points, or 0.43%, to close at 8,844.80, marking a fresh 100-day high. Over the past week, the index has advanced 2.11% and now sits just 0.08% below its 52-week peak. Sector gains were led by Materials (+1.58%) as lithium stocks rallied, Consumer Staples (+0.95%), and Health Care (+0.55%), while Consumer Discretionary (-1.63%) and Information Technology (-0.73%) lagged.

Macro Update: India has emerged as an unexpected focus of Washington’s latest effort to pressure Russia over the Ukraine war. Last week, US President Donald Trump announced a tariff hike on Indian imports to 50%, up from 25%, citing Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil. India denounced the move as “unfair” and “unjustified.” The measure, set to take effect on 27 August, aims to curb Russia’s oil revenue and push for a ceasefire. The increase makes India the most heavily taxed US trading partner in Asia, placing it alongside Brazil among nations facing steep US trade penalties.

Top Market Movers: Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) led gains on Monday, surging 19.69% to AUD 2.31, followed by Liontown Resources Limited (ASX: LTR) up 18.34% to AUD 1.00 and Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) rising 12.18% to AUD 38.12. On the downside, Block, Inc. (ASX: XYZ) fell 9.03% to AUD 115.62, JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) dropped 8.39% to AUD 107.83, and Iress Limited (ASX: IRE) slid 7.23% to AUD 8.72.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday after last week’s losses, with traders awaiting Tuesday’s July CPI report and progress in U.S.-China trade talks to avoid higher tariffs. Gold dropped 1.50% to USD 3,439.10, silver fell 0.97% to USD 38.18, and copper gained 0.14% to USD 9,778.45. Brent crude slipped 0.78% to USD 66.07, extending a 4% weekly decline on higher U.S. tariffs, OPEC’s output hike, and optimism over a potential U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement.

Our Stance: ASX 200’s 0.43% rise to a 100-day high reflects investor optimism ahead of the RBA’s expected rate cut, with Materials leading sector gains. However, the rally comes against a complex global backdrop, notably the U.S. move to double tariffs on India, adding geopolitical uncertainty to trade flows. Top movers like Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources suggest higher momentum in the resources sector, but sharp declines in consumer and tech names highlight market bifurcation. With commodity prices mixed and macro headwinds intensifying, near-term sentiment may hinge on central bank policy signals and geopolitical developments.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index saw a gain of 37.70 points, closing at 8,844.80. This rise, marked by a bullish candlestick pattern and supported by solid trading volumes, highlights continued investor enthusiasm and confidence. The index is maintaining its position above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing a bullish outlook. A key resistance level to watch is 8,900.20; a successful breakout above this level could signal a stronger recovery and potentially shift market dynamics positively. Moreover, the index's position above the 50-period SMA on the weekly chart provides a solid foundation for potential long-term gains. To sustain the current upward momentum, the index must clear the 8,900.20 resistance. Achieving this could pave the way for further advances and enhance positive market sentiment in the near term.