Index Update:  The Australian sharemarket extended its losing streak to a fourth straight session on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 22.60 points, or 0.26%, to 8,762.50, slipping below its 200-day moving average.

Despite the benchmark's decline, eight of the 11 sectors closed in positive territory. Energy led the gains, rising 1.67%, followed by Utilities (+1.28%), Consumer Staples (+0.97%), Information Technology (+0.92%), and Telecommunication Services (+0.89%). On the downside, Materials (-1.48%) recorded the largest fall, while A-REITs (-1.10%) and Financials (-0.42%) also ended lower. Among individual stocks, Pantoro Gold Limited was the weakest performer, falling 10.18%, followed by Magellan Financial Group Limited, which declined 5.70%. Over the past five trading sessions, the S&P/ASX 200 has gained 0.44% and remains broadly flat for the year.

Macro Update: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, down from its earlier estimate of 3.1%, citing ongoing risks from the Middle East conflict, trade fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding AI-driven market expectations. While the global economy has proved more resilient than expected, the IMF expects global trade growth to slow to 3.5% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025. Inflation is projected to remain elevated, with higher energy prices continuing to weigh on the global economic outlook.

Top Market Movers: Fletcher Building Limited (ASX:FBU) led the gains, rising 7.55% to AUD 2.99, followed by Megaport Limited (ASX:MP1), which advanced 5.56% to AUD 20.14, and New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX:NHC), up 5.45% to AUD 5.22. On the downside, Pantoro Gold Limited (ASX:PNR) fell 10.18% to AUD 1.985, Magellan Financial Group Limited (ASX:MFG) declined 5.70% to AUD 9.93, and Minerals 260 Limited (ASX:MI6) dropped 5.51% to AUD 0.60.

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar remained firm against most major currencies on Thursday as renewed tensions in the Gulf increased safe-haven demand, while higher crude oil prices strengthened expectations that central banks could keep interest rates elevated. Gold declined 0.18% to USD 4,075.10 per ounce, silver slipped 0.47% to USD 58.21 per ounce, and copper advanced 0.28% to USD 13,251.70 per metric ton. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil rose 1.00% to USD 78.78 per barrel after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran raised concerns over disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: The Australian sharemarket remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions and a softer global growth outlook continue to weigh on investor confidence. Although the S&P/ASX 200 recorded its fourth consecutive decline, gains across eight of the 11 sectors indicate that buying interest persists in selected areas, particularly energy and defensive sectors. The IMF's lower global growth forecast and expectations of slower trade expansion suggest external headwinds may remain, while elevated oil prices could keep inflation concerns in focus. In the near term, market direction is likely to remain driven by geopolitical developments, commodity price movements and evolving macroeconomic data.

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 22.60 points in the latest trading session, forming a bearish candlestick that signals renewed selling pressure and a cautious near-term market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a key dynamic resistance level and suggests that short-term momentum remains tilted to the downside. Immediate support is positioned near the 8,700 level, which is expected to play a crucial role in determining the index's next directional move. A sustained hold above this support could reinforce the broader bullish trend, encourage renewed buying interest, and pave the way for a recovery towards recent highs. However, a decisive break below the 8,700 mark would weaken the current technical structure, intensify bearish momentum, and increase the likelihood of a deeper corrective pullback in the near term.

 

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