Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed lower on Thursday, falling 92.30 points or 1.06% to 8,579.50, after reversing early gains that saw the index trade in positive territory during morning hours and reach an intraday high of 8,723.30. Over the past month, sentiment has remained cautious amid heightened global uncertainty.

Over the last five trading sessions, the index has gained 0.63%, though it remains down 1.55% on a year-to-date basis. Market breadth was negative, with nine of the 11 sectors finishing lower alongside the broader index, reflecting widespread selling pressure in the afternoon session.

The Consumer Staples sector emerged as the top performer, rising 1.32% on the day and advancing 2.04% over the past five days, providing some support to the market. While, the Information Technology sector dropped 3.93% and Materials sector closed 2.77% lower.

Macro Update: U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict, warning that Washington would launch significantly intensified military action against Iran in the coming weeks. In a nationally televised address, he indicated that operations would be severe and sustained, while also leaving open the possibility of further escalation if Tehran fails to meet U.S. demands in potential negotiations, including strikes targeting key energy infrastructure. The remarks dampened expectations for a near-term resolution to the conflict, unsettling global markets as investors reacted to the lack of a clear de-escalation path.

Top Market Movers: Thursday’s top gainers on the ASX included Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR), which rose AUD 0.130 to AUD 2.120, up 6.532%. Alcoa Corporation (ASX:AAI) gained AUD 3.940 to AUD 101.740, a 4.028% increase, while Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) advanced AUD 0.570 to AUD 22.620, up 2.585%. On the downside, Generation Development Group (ASX:GDG) fell AUD 0.490 to AUD 3.900, down 11.162%. Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX:OBM) declined AUD 0.125 to AUD 1.120, a loss of 10.041%, while SiteMinder Limited (ASX:SDR) dropped AUD 0.280 to AUD 2.760, down 9.211%.

Commodity Update: The dollar advanced against major currencies on Thursday as investors returned to safe-haven assets after President Donald Trump said U.S. military strikes on Iran would continue for another two to three weeks. Although Trump said the conflict could end soon, his remarks reduced hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Commodity markets moved sharply, with gold falling 2.17% to USD 4,708.45, silver declining 5.21% to USD 72.12, and copper slipping 1.13% to USD 12,303.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 4.83% to USD 106.03 per barrel.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.06% to 8,579.50 on Thursday, reversing early gains after touching an intraday high of 8,723.30, with nine of 11 sectors finishing lower and weakness led by Information Technology and Materials. While the index has edged up 0.63% over the past five sessions, it remains down 1.55% year to date, reflecting fragile sentiment. Escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning of intensified military action against Iran unsettled global markets, driving oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Overall, near-term direction remains cautious as geopolitical risks and commodity volatility continue to dominate investor sentiment.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 declined by 92.30 points, forming a bearish candlestick that reflects mild but noticeable selling pressure. The move suggests some loss of near-term momentum, although it does not yet confirm a broader trend reversal. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a key resistance level and limiting upside potential. As long as prices remain beneath this barrier, bullish momentum is likely to stay constrained in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 8,430.50; a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment further and open the door for a deeper corrective phase.