ASX 200 Slips as Trade Tensions Rise; Materials Sector Outperforms

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed lower on Friday, slipping 9.10 points or 0.11% to settle at 8,580.10, after briefly trading above 8,600 in early trading. The index reversed gains as renewed trade tensions weighed on sentiment following comments from US President Donald Trump. Over the past five sessions, the ASX 200 has declined 0.27% and now sits just 0.68% below its 52-week high.

Despite overall market weakness, the materials sector outperformed, rising 1.82% on the day and 0.80% over the week, making it the sole gainer among the 11 sectors. All other sectors ended in the red, with A-REIT sector posting the steepest drop of 1.48%.

Macro Update: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting 1 August, just days ahead of the deadline for a new trade deal. The announcement, made via Truth Social, is part of a broader threat to impose blanket tariffs of 15–20% on most U.S. trade partners. The latest move raises questions over whether goods currently under the existing Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will be affected.

Trump has already imposed a 25% auto tariff and a 50% global levy on aluminium and steel, with Canada hit particularly hard despite exemptions. Similar tariff warnings have been sent to over 20 U.S. allies this week, including the EU.

According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), business turnover fell 0.1 per cent in May 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Robert Ewing, Head of Business Statistics at ABS, noted that the latest figures mark the first monthly decline in business turnover since October 2024.

Top Market Movers: Leading the ASX 200 gains on Friday were Iluka Resources Limited (ASX: ILU), which surged 22.86% to close at AUD 4.89, followed by Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC), advancing 16.65% to AUD 9.67. Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) also posted gains, rising 7.76% to finish at AUD 27.49. On the other hand, Lifestyle Communities Limited (ASX: LIC) led the declines, dropping 5.38% to AUD 4.57. HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC) followed, falling 3.85% to AUD 3.75, while Capstone Copper Limited (ASX: CSC) lost 3.61% to end the day at AUD 8.82.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened Friday amid escalating global trade tensions, as President Trump announced new tariffs and proposed 15–20% blanket levies on most trade partners. Gold climbed 0.57% to USD 3,344.70, and silver rose 1.39% to USD 37.83. Copper edged up 0.09% to USD 9,708.75. Brent crude gained 0.28% to USD 68.83 after a 2% decline triggered by tariff concerns and lowered OPEC demand forecasts.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 ended the week slightly lower, reflecting market unease over escalating trade tensions. President Trump's tariff threats have cast uncertainty over global trade, contributing to risk-off sentiment. While most sectors declined, the Materials sector bucked the trend, buoyed by strong gains in resource stocks. Meanwhile, commodity markets showed resilience, with gold and silver rallying on safe-haven flows. Investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic data continue to shape market direction.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index endured a challenging session, closing down 9.10 points and forming a small bearish candlestick pattern amid higher trading volume. Despite this pullback, the index remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart a key support level. Notably, critical support is identified near 8,480.50, a level closely watched by market participants. Holding above this threshold could help consolidate recent gains and reinforce confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. Furthermore, the index’s position above the 21-period SMA on the weekly chart signals the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The alignment of these technical indicators across timeframes highlights the index’s resilience and supports a broadly positive outlook despite short-term volatility.