Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 retreated on Tuesday, shedding 63.10 points or 0.70% to close at 8,896.20, after recently touching a new 52-week high. The decline was driven by a record one-day plunge in CSL Limited, which wiped more than AUD 20 billion and weighed heavily on the broader index. Despite the fall, seven of the 11 sectors managed to finish higher, with Telecommunications Services leading gains at 0.72% for the day and 2.38% over the past five sessions. Over the last week, the index has remained largely flat but currently sits 0.75% below its yearly peak.

Macro Update: In its global economic outlook for August 2025, S&P Global has increased its forecast for world economic growth in 2025 for countries like the United States (US), Canada, the eurozone, the United Kingdom (UK), and mainland China, after stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter. The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed improvement for the third month in July, mainly supported by services, while manufacturing is still weak and expectations for future growth remain low. Higher US tariffs have led to lower growth forecasts for India and Brazil for 2025–2026. Overall, slower growth is expected in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs, uncertainty, and tight monetary policies.

Top Market Movers: Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) led the top gainers on Tuesday, climbing 9.97% to AUD 2.15, followed by ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB), which surged 8.55% to AUD 39.49, and SEEK Limited (ASX: SEK), rising 7.99% to AUD 27.72. On the downside, CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) posted the steepest fall, plunging 16.89% to AUD 225.50 after a record sell-off. Reliance Worldwide (ASX: RWC) slipped 6.74% to AUD 4.29, while Polynovo (ASX: PNV) declined 6.64% to AUD 1.13.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday as markets awaited the outcome of a White House summit with European nations, seen as pivotal for the next phase of the Ukraine war. Precious metals were mixed: gold rose 0.05% to USD 3,379.60, silver slipped 0.37% to USD 37.88, and copper edged up 0.02% to USD 9,750.00. Brent crude eased 0.11% to USD 65.53 amid speculation that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks may ease sanctions on Russian oil.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200’s 0.70% pullback to 8,896.20 underscores the market’s sensitivity to single-stock shocks. CSL’s record one-day plunge erased more than AUD 20 billion and was the clear driver of the decline despite seven sectors finishing higher. Globally, S&P Global has lifted its 2025 growth outlook for major economies, but trade tariffs and tight policies may slow momentum later this year. With stocks like Centuria and ARB gaining while CSL dragged the index down, the market looks cautious. Market participants should stay diversified and watch global trends and company results for the next direction.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index endured a challenging session, declining 63.10 points and forming a bearish candlestick pattern on elevated trading volume, a sign of heightened selling pressure. Despite this pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. On the daily chart, the index continues to trade above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key long-term support level closely monitored by market participants. A crucial support zone lies near 8,800, and maintaining price action above this threshold could allow the index to consolidate recent gains while preserving its medium-term bullish structure. From a weekly perspective, the index remains positioned above the 21-period SMA, underscoring the persistence of upward momentum across higher timeframes. This alignment of bullish signals across both daily and weekly charts highlights the market’s underlying resilience, even as short-term volatility exerts pressure.