Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 slipped on Wednesday, falling 53.70 points (0.60%) to close at 8,827.10 after touching a fresh 100-day high as index heavyweight CBA fell tanked over 5% on valuation concerns. Over the past five trading days, the index has been essentially flat and sits 0.71% below its 52-week peak. Six of 11 sectors finished in the green despite the overall decline, with Materials the standout, up 0.97% on the day and rallying 4.53% over the last five sessions. The sector data showed pronounced losses in Utilities (-2.77%) and Financials (-2.60%), whereas Health Care (+0.95%), Consumer Staples (+0.89%), Telecommunications Services (+0.68%), and Industrials (+0.67%) were in green territory.

Macro Update: Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) increased 0.8% in the June quarter 2025 and 3.4% over the year, seasonally adjusted, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data released today. Annual wage growth was steady compared to the March quarter’s 3.4% rise but lower than the 4.1% recorded a year earlier. The quarterly increase was also slightly below the 0.9% rise seen in March. In housing finance, the total number of new loan commitments for dwellings rose 1.9% in the June quarter, with the value up 2.0%. New owner-occupier loans increased 0.9% in number and 2.4% in value, while investor loans rose 3.5% in number and 1.4% in value. First home buyer activity also lifted, with new owner-occupier first home buyer loan commitments up 1.7% in number and 5.7% in value over the quarter.

Top Market Movers: Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) led gains on Wednesday, rising 7.02% to AUD 48.46, followed by Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) up 5.64% at AUD 11.62 and Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) gaining 5.47% to AUD 43.00. On the downside, AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) fell 13.11% to AUD 8.88, Beach Energy Limited (ASX: BPT) dropped 7.55% to AUD 1.23, and Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) declined 6.55% to AUD 2.14.

Commodity Update: The dollar weakened on Wednesday after soft U.S. inflation data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut next month, while President Trump's political moves further pressured the currency. Gold rose 0.12% to USD 3,402.90, silver gained 0.59% to USD 38.22, and copper edged up 0.06% to USD 9,834.55. Brent crude was flat at USD 66.15 after a prior drop, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles signalled the summer demand season’s end.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 retreated 0.60% to 8,827.10 on Wednesday, paring gains after a fresh 100-day high, with sector moves split between strength in Materials and weakness in Utilities and Financials. Macro data showed steady wage growth at 3.4% annually, slightly easing from last year, and a quarterly lift in housing finance led by investor loans and first home buyers. Top movers reflected a mix of industrial and consumer strength, while energy names lagged. Commodities were broadly steady as gold and silver edged higher. The market seems to be balancing resilient domestic demand with softer global growth and rate-cut speculation.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index ended the session down 53.70 points, forming a bearish candlestick pattern on higher volume. Despite the pullback, it remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, a key support level for traders. Critical support is seen near 8,700, with a hold above this zone likely to consolidate recent gains and maintain confidence in the uptrend. On the weekly chart, the index also trades above its 21-period SMA, signalling scope for sustained bullish momentum. The alignment of these signals across timeframes underscores the market’s underlying resilience and keeps the broader outlook positive despite short-term volatility.