Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 finished higher on Monday, rising 108.60 points or 1.29% to close at 8,525.10, after recently touching a new 100-day low. Despite the day’s positive performance, the benchmark remains down 1.29% over the past five trading sessions. Year-to-date, however, the index has gained 4.49%. Broader market sentiment improved, with ten of 11 sectors advancing. Industrials outperformed the market, closing +2.71% and up 0.51% over the past week. Information Technology (+2.39%), A-REITs (+2.10%), Utilities (+2.04%), and Health Care (+1.97%) also contributed to the upswing. Energy was the only sector in negative territory, slipping 0.28%.

Macro Update: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that the recent 43-day federal government shutdown inflicted a permanent $11 billion loss on the U.S. economy, though he remained upbeat about growth prospects for 2026 as interest rates ease and tax reductions take effect. Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent noted that interest rate–sensitive sectors such as housing had already slipped into recession but said he did not view the broader economy as being at imminent risk of contracting.

Top Market Movers: Qube Holdings Limited (ASX:QUB) led the top gainers on Monday, jumping 19.41% to AUD 4.860. Reece Limited (ASX:REH) rose 12.66% to AUD 12.370, while Iress Limited (ASX:IRE) climbed 8.04% to AUD 9.680. Among the major declines, Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) fell 6.46% to AUD 1.375. Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) dipped 4.43% to AUD 1.510, and Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) eased 3.59% to AUD 3.760.

Commodity Update: The dollar remained firm on Monday as traders remained alert to potential yen intervention signals. At the same time, UK gilt markets turned cautious ahead of the British budget in a holiday-shortened week. New Zealand is also expected to cut rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Commodities softened, with gold down 0.86% to USD 4,080.40, silver easing 0.71% to USD 49.56, and copper marginally lower. Brent crude dipped 0.22% to USD 62.42 as Russia-Ukraine peace talks showed progress and a stronger dollar weighed on prices.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 staged a rebound on Monday, closing 1.29% higher at 8,525.10, despite remaining lower across the past week. Gains were broad-based, with Industrials leading advances, while Energy was the only sector closing with losses. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on a limited shutdown impact and improving 2026 outlook added to the macro relief. Qube Holdings (ASX:QUB), Reece (ASX:REH), and Iress (ASX:IRE) topped the gainers, while lithium names lagged. Commodities softened as the dollar stayed firm and oil eased on geopolitical progress. The rebound suggests sentiment is stabilising, but uneven sector performance and macro uncertainty warrant continued caution.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 108.60 points to close at 8,525.10, supported by a bullish candlestick formation and strong trading volumes both indicative of sustained investor confidence. On the daily chart, the index remains below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which continues to act as a dynamic resistance level. A key support zone is located near 8,430, and maintaining price action above this area is essential for preserving the prevailing bullish structure. Holding this level would allow the index to consolidate recent gains while reinforcing confidence in the broader upward trajectory. From a weekly perspective, the index trades comfortably above its 50-period SMA, further underscoring a constructive longer-term outlook. Overall, the technical setup suggests the potential for continued upward momentum, provided near-term support levels remain intact.