Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 2.30 points on Monday to close at 9,200.90, as investors rotated into gold miners and oil stocks following US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, sending commodity prices sharply higher. Over the past five sessions, the benchmark has advanced 1.94% and now sits just 0.02% below its 52-week high, highlighting continued upward momentum despite a mixed sectoral finish. Sector performance reflected the cautious tone across the market, with four sectors closing higher and seven ending in the red. Energy led the gains, climbing 5.50% on the day and 7.60% over the last five days, making it the standout performer as higher oil prices boosted buying interest.

Macro Update: Oil prices surged on Monday while equity markets weakened as escalating military conflict in the Middle East raised fears of a prolonged disruption to the global economic recovery and a potential resurgence in inflation. Brent crude surged 7.37% to USD 78.24, reaching multi-month highs. Safe-haven demand pushed gold higher, with bullion rising 2.25% to USD 5,367.70 after the United States and Israel launched major strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The escalation intensified geopolitical tensions and added to global economic uncertainty. Israel followed with a fresh wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday, prompting Iran to respond with additional missile barrages, deepening concerns about a conflict that could last for weeks. Gold, traditionally viewed as a defensive asset, has already notched multiple record highs this year as investors seek protection amid heightened political and economic risks worldwide.

Top Market Movers: Top gainers on the ASX were led by Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR), which jumped to AUD 1.780, up AUD 0.235 (15.210%). Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG) advanced to AUD 1.640, rising AUD 0.155 (10.437%), while Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) climbed to AUD 8.060, adding AUD 0.630 (8.479%). On the downside, Zip Co Limited (ASX:ZIP) fell to AUD 1.750, down AUD 0.160 (8.377%), SiteMinder Limited (ASX:SDR) slipped to AUD 3.320, losing AUD 0.280 (7.778%), and Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB) declined to AUD 2.070, off AUD 0.170 (7.590%).

Commodity Update: Safe-haven demand intensified on Monday after escalating tensions in the Middle East unsettled global markets. The euro weakened while the U.S. dollar strengthened, and the Swiss franc advanced as risk aversion deepened. Gold climbed 2.25% to USD 5,367.70, while silver gained 1.44% to USD 94.64. Copper edged down 0.07% to USD 13,360.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 7.37% to USD 78.24, reaching multi-month highs amid supply disruption concerns.

Our Stance: The Australian share market delivered a modest gain as strength in commodity-linked segments countered broader weakness, with the index holding just below its record level even as global risk sentiment deteriorated. The benchmark’s ability to hover near a peak despite narrow market breadth signals underlying resilience, but leadership is clearly defensive rather than broad-based. Rising energy prices and strong safe-haven flows are providing support, while also pointing to mounting geopolitical risk and potential inflation pressure. Currency trends and softer global equities reinforce a cautious near-term backdrop, suggesting the rally is becoming more tactical, with durability tied to the persistence of commodity momentum.

In the latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 edged higher by 2.30 points to settle at 9,200.90, forming a bullish candlestick on strong volumes, reflecting solid investor participation. On the daily chart, the index continues to trade comfortably above its 50-period SMA, reinforcing the prevailing short-term uptrend. Immediate support is placed near 9,030.40, and holding above this level would maintain the constructive structure. A decisive break below could introduce near-term volatility. On the weekly timeframe, sustained trade above the 50-period SMA confirms that the broader medium- to long-term trend remains firmly positive.