index Update:  The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 42.60 points or 0.49% on Monday to close at 8,701.80, with eight of the 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. Health Care led declines, pressured by heavyweight CSL after the company announced a AUD 7 billion write-down and profit downgrade, sending the stock to a nine-year low. Energy was the strongest-performing sector, rising 1.09% as oil prices climbed after the US rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal. Despite the pullback, the benchmark index remains broadly flat over both the past five trading sessions and year to date.

Macro Update: US employers added more jobs than expected in April, with payrolls rising by 300,000, marking the strongest two-month hiring increase since 2024. The data signalled improving labour market momentum after near-flat Job growth last year, while the Unemployment rate remained steady despite higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a third straight meeting, with Governor Michele Bullock signalling policymakers may now pause to assess the impact of earlier tightening measures.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, 4DMedical Limited (ASX:4DX) rose 7.17% to AUD 3.44, Dyno Nobel Limited (ASX:DNL) gained 6.63% to AUD 3.54, and Metcash Limited (ASX:MTS) advanced 6.57% to AUD 2.92. On the losing side, CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) plunged 15.96% to AUD 100.75, Web Travel Group Limited (ASX:WEB) fell 5.46% to AUD 2.60, while Emerald Resources NL (ASX:EMR) declined 5.25% to AUD 5.78.

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies in early Asian trade on Monday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations of economic resilience. Safe-haven Demand also increased as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire remained under pressure. Gold declined 0.81% to USD 4,692.50, while silver gained 0.83% to USD 81.53 and copper rose 0.52% to USD 13,634.00. Brent Crude oil surged 3.10% to USD 104.43 after U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal as “totally unacceptable,” keeping geopolitical tensions elevated.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.49% on Monday to close at 8,701.80, with weakness in Health Care weighing on the broader market after CSL’s sharp decline following a AUD 7 billion write-down and profit downgrade. Energy stocks outperformed as oil prices surged amid renewed US-Iran tensions, while stronger-than-expected US payrolls data reinforced expectations of economic resilience. Commodity markets remained mixed, with Brent crude climbing above USD 104 a barrel as geopolitical risks supported safe-haven demand. Despite the softer session, the ASX 200 remains broadly flat over recent weeks, suggesting investors are balancing global growth optimism against rising geopolitical and Inflation-related risks.

S&P/ASX 200 declined by 42.60 points in the latest session, forming a bearish candlestick pattern that reflects renewed selling pressure and cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as an important dynamic resistance level and limiting near-term upside momentum. Despite the recent weakness, the index is showing early signs of stabilisation around current levels, suggesting that buyers are attempting to defend key support zones. Immediate support is positioned near 8,620.50, and holding above this level could help contain further downside pressure while preserving the broader short-term upward trend. However, a decisive breakdown below this support may weaken the prevailing technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase, accompanied by heightened near-term Volatility.

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