Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 experienced a sharp decline on Friday, shedding 136.20 points, or 1.59%, to close at 8,416.50, its lowest level in 100 days. The benchmark index has now fallen 2.52% over the past five sessions, though it remains up 3.15% year-to-date. Market weakness was broad-based, with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in the red. Consumer Staples stood out as the sole area of resilience, holding flat both on the day and across the week to emerge as the top-performing sector.

Macro Update: The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world’s 20 largest economies will expand by only 2.9% in 2030, marking the weakest medium-term growth outlook since the 2009 global financial crisis. In its report to G20 members, the IMF cited protectionism, policy uncertainty, rising fiscal pressures and aging populations as key challenges. It forecast G20 advanced economies to grow just 1.4% in 2030, while emerging markets are expected to fare better at 3.9%. Global growth is projected to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.0% in 2026.

Top Market Movers: Among the top performers on Thursday, GQG Partners Inc. (ASX:GQG) led gains, rising 5.18% to AUD 1.625, followed by Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX:CAT) up 4.40% at AUD 4.510. Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) also advanced 4.23% to AUD 24.640. On the downside, Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX:LOV) posted the biggest drop, sliding 13.79% to AUD 30.020. Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) fell 11.55% to AUD 6.280, while IperionX Ltd (ASX:IPX) declined 9.57% to AUD 4.440.

Commodity Update: The dollar headed for its strongest weekly gain in over a month as traders bet the Fed won’t cut rates next month, with a mixed U.S. jobs report offering little clarity. Gold slipped 0.09% to USD 4,056.40, silver fell 1.32% to USD 49.63, and copper eased 0.26% to USD 10,700. Brent crude dropped 1.12% to USD 62.67 amid U.S. efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and caution over rate-cut uncertainty.

Our Stance: Market sentiment turned cautious as the S&P/ASX 200 retreated 1.59%, extending weekly losses amid broad-based sector weakness. Ten of eleven sectors ended lower, reflecting investor concern over global growth prospects, with only Consumer Staples providing stability. Ongoing macro pressures, including subdued growth forecasts from the IMF and rising policy uncertainties, continue to weigh on risk appetite. Commodity markets mirrored the cautious tone, with oil and metals easing, while the local currency strengthened. Notable movers highlighted the divergence in performance, with select equities posting gains despite broader declines, emphasizing the market’s selective nature in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 136.20 points, forming a large bearish candlestick on rising volume a combination that signals heightened investor caution and reinforces the prevailing short-term bearish sentiment. Despite this pullback, the index continues to trade below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains an important zone of immediate resistance. On the daily chart, key support is located near 8,340. Holding above this level will be essential for stabilizing price action and helping restore market confidence in the near term. From a broader weekly perspective, however, the index continues to trade above its 50-period SMA, a constructive long-term signal that suggests the potential for sustained upward momentum once the current selling pressure begins to ease.