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Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.30 points lower on Friday, slipping 0.28% to 8,807.10. Despite the daily drop, the index remains up 1.68% over the past five sessions and sits just 0.47% below its 52-week high. Sector performance was mixed, with six of the eleven sectors ending in negative territory. The standout performer was Materials, which rose +1.42% on the day and extended its five-day gain to +5.24%, buoyed by strength in commodity prices and mining stocks. On the downside, the HealthCare led sector losses, falling 1.46%, followed by Financials (-1.08%) and Consumer Staples (-0.99%). Other sectors with modest gains included Utilities (+0.55%) and Industrials (+0.43%).

Macro Update: Business turnover in Australia rose by 0.1% in June 2025, according to seasonally adjusted figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The arts and recreation services industry recorded the highest monthly rebound, climbing 3.5% after a sharp 4.7% fall in May. The mining industry also saw a monthly rise of 2.1%, driven by export strength. Coal mining surged 3.7%, while metal ore mining gained 2.7%, supporting the overall improvement. Compared to a year earlier, business turnover in June was up 2.9%, with 11 of 13 industries posting annual growth.

In another update from the ABS, trade figures revealed a seasonally adjusted AUD 3.76 billion increase in Australia’s goods balance in June, as goods exports jumped AUD 2.52 billion (6.0%), primarily due to non-monetary gold. Meanwhile, goods imports declined by AUD 1.24 billion (3.1%), led by reduced capital goods inflows.

Top Market Movers: IRESS Limited (ASX:IRE) led gains on Friday, jumping 12.17% to AUD 9.40, followed by Block Inc. (ASX:XYZ), which rose 9.14% to AUD 127.09, and Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), up 9.04% at AUD 1.93. On the downside, Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) plunged 13.24% to AUD 3.80, Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) dropped 11.22%, and QBE Insurance (ASX:QBE) fell 8.79% to AUD 21.39.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday, heading for a weekly decline after President Trump’s interim Fed Governor pick raised hopes of a dovish successor to Jerome Powell. Gold climbed 1.10% to USD 3,491.90, silver added 0.54% to USD 38.50, and copper edged up 0.19% to USD 9,701.10. Brent crude inched up 0.01% to USD 66.40, as investors weighed the global economic risks from newly imposed tariffs.

Our Stance: The broader market ended the week slightly lower, though underlying momentum remains positive. Materials led the charge, supported by firm commodity prices and mining sector strength, helping offset weakness in defensives like HealthCare and Consumer Staples. Business turnover data showed modest monthly growth, with mining and recreation services rebounding. Trade figures were also constructive, reflecting a sharp rise in exports and a pullback in imports, driving a notable improvement in the goods balance. Currency softness added support to commodities, particularly gold. Cyclical sectors remain relatively well-supported by macro tailwinds, while defensives may face near-term softness amid sector rotation and shifting performance drivers.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index ended the session down 24.30 points, forming a bearish candlestick pattern on elevated trading volume, a sign of increased selling pressure. Despite the pullback, the index remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, a widely watched support level that continues to underpin the medium-term trend. A key support zone sits near 8,700, and holding above this level could allow the market to consolidate recent gains and bolster investor confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. On the weekly chart, the index also trades above its 21-period SMA, reinforcing the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The alignment of these technical signals across daily and weekly timeframes underscores the index’s underlying resilience and supports a broadly constructive outlook, even in the face of near-term volatility.