index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 ended sharply lower on Thursday, falling 124.80 points or 1.43% to close at 8,592.90, slipping below its 50-day Moving Average as geopolitical tensions rattled investor sentiment. Australian equities came under pressure after renewed clashes between Iran and the US pushed oil prices higher, weakening expectations of a near-term peace agreement in the Middle East. Market weakness was broad-based, with nine of the 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. Despite the sell-off, Consumer Staples emerged as the strongest-performing sector, gaining 0.25% on the day and 0.10% over the past five sessions. The benchmark index has now declined 0.33% over the last five trading days and is down 1.39% year to date.

Macro Update: Australia’s private new Capital Expenditure (capex) rose 6.5% in the March 2026 quarter and was 14.6% higher year-on-year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The increase was driven by strong Investment in data centre equipment, including server racks and processing hardware. Spending on equipment, plant and machinery surged 18.1%, while buildings and structures fell 3.8%. Non-Mining investment climbed 8.8%, with mining broadly unchanged. Information media and telecommunications recorded the strongest industry growth, jumping 96.1% to a record level. Meanwhile, Estimate 2 for 2026-27 capex reached $173.4 billion, up 9.9% from Estimate 1.

Top Market Movers: Top gainers on the ASX included Siteminder Limited (ASX:SDR), which rose 8.609% to AUD 3.280, followed by Centuria Capital Group (ASX:CNI), up 6.371% to AUD 1.920. Web Travel Group Limited (ASX:WEB) also recorded notable gains, climbing 4.526% to AUD 2.540. Among the top decliners, Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) dropped 10.162% to AUD 5.570, while Eagers Automotive Limited (ASX:APE) fell 9.710% to AUD 20.550. Perseus Mining Limited (ASX:PRU) declined 9.666% to AUD 4.860.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held near a one-week high on Thursday after reports that the United States carried out fresh strikes on an Iranian military site, boosting safe-haven Demand. Gold dropped 1.25% to USD 4,425.55, while silver fell 2.17% to USD 73.25. Copper also declined 0.19% to USD 13,521.15. Meanwhile, Brent Crude oil surged 1.90% to USD 96.03 following the reported attack on Iran, although prices remained under pressure after reports suggested Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within 30 days.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.43% lower at 8,592.90 on Thursday as escalating tensions between the US and Iran weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pushed oil prices higher. Broad-based weakness across sectors reflected growing caution around global geopolitical risks, although resilient Consumer Staples stocks offered some stability. At the same time, Australia’s March quarter private capital expenditure data highlighted strong underlying economic activity, driven by surging investment in data centres and technology infrastructure. While near-term Volatility may persist amid uncertainty in energy markets and global trade conditions, continued strength in non-mining investment and Business spending could provide support for medium-term market confidence.

The S&P/ASX 200 declined by 124.80 points in the latest Trading session, forming a bearish candlestick pattern that reflects weakening short-term market sentiment and increased selling pressure. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains an important dynamic resistance zone and continues to cap near-term upside momentum. Immediate support is now positioned near the 8,490.60 level, and holding above this area could help stabilise sentiment and preserve the broader bullish structure. However, a decisive breakdown below 8,490.60 may weaken the current technical outlook, potentially triggering a deeper corrective phase and increasing near-term volatility across the Australian Equity market.