index Update: Australian shares edged higher on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising 10.30 points or 0.12% to close at 8,640.70 after touching a fresh 20-day low earlier in the session. The benchmark index remains down 2.67% over the past five trading days but is broadly flat year to date. Financials led gains, climbing 1.02% as Commonwealth Bank rebounded after its recent record decline, helping the market snap a multi-session losing streak. BHP also closed at another record high. However, Market Breadth remained weak, with Information Technology (-2.20%), Consumer Staples (-1.87%) and Health Care (-1.03%) among the biggest laggards.

Macro Update: Australia’s latest Budget package combines short-term cost-of-living relief with long-term energy security, tax reform and productivity measures as the government responds to the global oil shock and slowing economic momentum. Key initiatives include a $7.5 billion Fuel and Fertiliser Security Facility, a $250 Working Australians Tax Offset, a $1,000 instant Tax deduction and a temporary cut to fuel excise. The Budget also allocates major funding toward housing, public hospitals, aged care, Defence and infrastructure, while introducing tax relief and compliance savings for businesses alongside reforms aimed at boosting Investment, Manufacturing and national productivity.

Top Market Movers: Megaport Limited (ASX:MP1) led the gainers, rising 27.715% to AUD12.580, followed by 4DMedical Limited (ASX:4DX), which climbed 13.313% to AUD3.830. Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) also finished higher, gaining 4.332% to AUD40.220. On the losing side, GrainCorp Limited (ASX:GNC) fell 13.505% to AUD5.380, marking the sharpest decline among the top movers. Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) dropped 9.799% to AUD17.950, while Xero Limited (ASX:XRO) declined 9.037% to AUD73.680 during the session.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday as elevated Treasury yields reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, while continued tensions between the United States and Iran supported safe-haven Demand. Gold declined 0.39% to USD 4,688.50, silver dropped 2.10% to USD 87.53, and copper slipped 1.16% to USD 13,978.00. Brent Crude edged up 0.10% to USD 105.68 ahead of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Our Stance: Australian shares closed modestly higher on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 gaining 0.12% as Financials rebounded and BHP extended record highs, helping the market snap a recent losing streak. However, weakness across Technology, Consumer Staples and Health Care highlighted cautious sentiment beneath the surface. Investors also assessed the Federal Budget, which introduced fuel security measures, tax relief, housing support and productivity-focused reforms aimed at cushioning the economy against global oil shocks and slower growth. Commodity markets remained volatile as stronger U.S. dollar conditions pressured metals prices. Overall, markets appear to be balancing near-term fiscal support against persistent global Inflation, geopolitical risks and uncertainty around future Interest Rate settings.

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 10.30 points in the latest session, forming a positive candlestick pattern that reflects renewed buying interest and improving market sentiment. Technically, the index remains below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which continues to act as dynamic resistance and cap near-term upside momentum. Immediate support is located near 8,590.60; holding above this level could help stabilize the market and preserve the broader short-term uptrend, while a decisive break below it would weaken the technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase with elevated Volatility.