index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 pushed higher on Thursday, climbing 84.50 points or 0.96% to close at 8,878.10, with the benchmark index reclaiming levels above its 200-day Moving Average. The latest move extended the market’s recent rebound, with the ASX 200 now up 2.45% over the past five trading sessions and sitting 3.53% below its 52-week high. Market Breadth remained supportive, with seven of the eleven sectors finishing in positive territory. Materials emerged as the standout performer, surging 3.67% on the day and advancing 7.53% over the past five sessions, as gains across Mining and Commodity-linked stocks drove the broader market higher. Materials dominated gains, while Energy declined 2.94%, making it the weakest-performing sector despite broader market strength. Utilities also lagged, falling 1.60%, while Health Care slipped 1.12%.

Macro Update: Australia’s trade balance weakened sharply in March, with the seasonally adjusted goods surplus narrowing by AUD 6.87 bn to a Deficit of AUD 1.84 bn, marking the country’s first monthly Trade Deficit since December 2017. The shift was driven by a combination of softer export performance and a sharp rise in imports. Goods exports fell AUD 1.21 bn, or 2.7%, largely due to weaker “Other rural” exports. Meanwhile, goods imports surged AUD 5.65 bn, or 14.1%, led by increased imports of ADP equipment. Despite the seasonally adjusted deficit, the trade balance remained in surplus on an original basis, recording AUD 1.24 bn for the month.

The March figures highlight a notable cooling in Australia’s external trade position after years of sustained surpluses, with Import Demand significantly outpacing export growth during the period.

Top Market Movers: IperionX Limited (ASX:IPX) led the gainers, rising 10.25% to AUD 5.27, followed by Megaport Limited (ASX:MP1), which climbed 9.38% to AUD 10.03. Vault Minerals Limited (ASX:VAU) also advanced strongly, adding 9.21% to close at AUD 4.86. On the downside, Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH) recorded the steepest decline, falling 23.48% to AUD 0.88. Imdex Limited (ASX:IMD) dropped 11.29% to AUD 3.93, while 4DMedical Limited (ASX:4DX) declined 10.53% to AUD 3.40.

Commodity Update: Gold prices moved higher in Asian trading on Thursday after gaining nearly 3% in the previous session, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing Inflation concerns tied to hopes of a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Gold rose 0.41% to USD 4,714.40 per ounce, while silver advanced 1.32% to USD 78.30. Copper declined 0.43% to USD 13,356.90. Meanwhile, Brent Crude oil rebounded 0.90% to USD 102.15 per barrel after the previous session’s sharp decline.

Our Stance: The ASX 200’s move back above its 200-day moving average signals improving near-term sentiment, particularly as strength in Materials and commodity-linked names continues to support the broader market. However, the sharp deterioration in Australia’s trade balance introduces a more cautious macro backdrop, especially with the country recording its first seasonally adjusted goods deficit since 2017. The divergence between strong Equity performance and weakening external trade data suggests investors remain focused on Liquidity, commodity resilience, and easing global inflation pressures rather than domestic economic softness. Gold’s rebound and firmer oil prices also indicate that markets are still closely tied to global macro developments and geopolitical expectations. Going forward, sustaining the rally may depend on whether Earnings momentum and commodity demand can offset signs of slowing trade conditions and uneven sector participation.

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 84.50 points in the latest session, forming a bullish candlestick pattern that signals improving market sentiment and a gradual increase in buying interest. Technically, the index continues to trade above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a key dynamic support and reinforcing the broader positive bias. Although the index is showing signs of stabilisation at current levels, immediate support is seen near 8,750.60. Holding above this zone could help contain downside pressure and preserve the short-term upward trend. However, a decisive move below this support level may weaken the prevailing technical structure and could trigger a deeper corrective phase along with increased near-term Volatility.