Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 edged higher on Friday, gaining 16.20 points to close at 8,634.60, lifting the index above its 20-day moving average. The broader market is waiting for key interest rate decisions in the US next week. Despite the modest advance, the Australian index remained virtually unchanged over the past five sessions but has risen 5.83% year-to-date. Market performance was mixed, with more sectors declining than rising. Materials led the gains, climbing 0.76% on the day and 3.04% across the week, supported by strength in lithium miners amid growing demand for battery energy storage systems. Consumer discretionary stocks recorded the sharpest drop, falling 1.15% and weighing on overall market sentiment.

Macro Update: Global equities strengthened on Thursday as investors positioned themselves ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut. US markets finished the session mixed but mostly higher, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.11% and the Nasdaq rising 0.22%, while the Dow slipped 0.07%.

In Australia, new Labour Account data from the ABS showed that filled jobs increased by 107,600, or 0.7%, in the September quarter of 2025, bringing the total to 16.1 million. Both main and secondary jobs contributed to the growth, with main jobs up 0.5% and secondary jobs rising 3.8%. Despite this quarterly lift, annual growth in filled jobs slowed to 1.2%, the weakest pace since early 2021. The multiple job-holding rate also ticked higher to 6.5%, supported by a 2.2% rise in the number of people working more than one job and a 0.3% increase in total employment.

Top Market Movers: Among Friday’s strongest movers, IGO Ltd (ASX:IGO) topped the gainers, jumping 7.11% to close at AUD 6.930. Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX:WHC) also posted a 6.25% rise to AUD 7.820, while Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX:LTR) gained 4.76% to finish at AUD 1.320. On the declines side, Premier Investments Ltd (ASX:PMV) recorded the steepest fall, sliding 15.87% to AUD 15.220. Nick Scali Ltd (ASX:NCK) dropped 3.98% to AUD 23.180, and Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX:APE) dipped 3.59% to close at AUD 26.840.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hovered near a five-week low as traders awaited next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a quarter-point rate cut is widely expected. Markets will watch for clues on the pace of future easing. Gold slipped 0.21% to USD 4,234.15, while silver rose 0.99% to USD 58.06 and copper gained 1.08% to USD 11,568.50. Brent crude inched up 0.09% to USD 63.32, supported by rate-cut expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.

Our Stance: Market conditions appear broadly constructive heading into key central-bank decisions, with the ASX 200 holding above near-term technical levels and global equities firming ahead of an expected US rate cut. Labour data in Australia signals resilient employment but moderating momentum, supporting the case for domestic policy easing. Sector rotation remains evident, led by strength in materials on improving battery-metal sentiment, while discretionary weakness reflects cautious consumer trends. Commodity markets continue to stabilise as expectations of looser monetary policy build. Overall, the environment suggests a favourable backdrop for risk assets, though near-term volatility is likely around upcoming monetary policy announcements.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 16.20 points to close at 8,634.60, supported by a small bullish candlestick formation and strong trading volumes both signaling sustained investor confidence. On the daily chart, however, the index continues to trade below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains a key dynamic resistance level. A critical support zone is located near 8,560.50, and holding above this area is essential for preserving the current bullish structure. Successfully defending this level would allow the index to consolidate recent gains while reinforcing confidence in the broader upward trajectory. From a weekly perspective, the index is trading comfortably above its 50-period SMA, reinforcing a constructive longer-term outlook. Overall, the technical setup points to the potential for continued upside momentum, provided near-term support levels remain intact.