Highlights

  • JPMorgan has reportedly flagged scope for a meaningful rebound in US mined copper output through renewed Capital commitment in the sector.
  • Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and BHP Group (ASX:BHP) hold documented US copper interests, including a proposed underground development in Arizona.
  • Permitting reform and new leaching technologies are among the factors cited, although much of the potential Supply sits well into the future.

The outlook for US copper supply has returned to the spotlight after JPMorgan reportedly outlined the potential for a substantial revival in American mine output, driven by renewed capital commitment in the sector. For Australian Market Participants following Metal and Mining Stocks, the discussion is relevant because Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and BHP Group (ASX:BHP) both have documented exposure to US copper, including a proposed underground development in Arizona in which both companies are joint venture partners. The theme also sits within a broader global conversation about how the world will meet rising copper Demand from electrification, grid upgrades and data centres, at a time when new supply has proven slow and complex to deliver.

JPMorgan's View on the US Copper Opportunity

According to reporting on the bank's analysis, JPMorgan believes the United States could add significant annual copper production if mining activity is revitalised, although much of that potential is not expected to materialise for several years. The bank reportedly attributes a long decline in US mined copper output largely to underinvestment, a trend that has seen the country's share of global production shrink substantially from its historical peak.

JPMorgan was also reported to rank the United States behind Chile and Argentina among the potential contributors to future global copper supply growth. These views are the bank's assessment and depend on a range of regulatory, technical and economic factors that remain uncertain.

Rio Tinto and BHP's Documented US Copper Interests

Rio Tinto has a long-standing presence in US copper. The company owns the Kennecott operation in Utah, which hosts among the very few copper smelters operating in the United States and which also recovers tellurium as a by-product of copper refining. Rio Tinto has also been expanding renewable power at the site, adding solar capacity to support the operation's energy needs.

Kennecott's integrated mine, smelter and refinery footprint gives Rio Tinto a domestic processing presence in a market where US policymakers have highlighted the importance of local refining and smelting capacity. That positioning has become more relevant as copper has moved higher on the US strategic minerals agenda.

Alongside Kennecott, Rio Tinto and BHP are partners in a proposed underground copper development in Arizona. JPMorgan views this project as a potentially major contributor to future US supply, but that it still requires further permitting and technical studies, with production not expected for several years. The project's eventual timing and scale remain subject to those approvals and studies.

Technology and Permitting as Potential Catalysts

JPMorgan reportedly pointed to regulatory reform, including a federal framework aimed at accelerating permitting for major infrastructure and resources projects, as a Factor that could help unlock new supply. Advances in leaching technology and the potential restart of older copper mines were also cited as possible sources of additional output.

Rio Tinto has been active in this area through its Nuton bioleaching technology. In a release, the company said Nuton had produced its maiden copper cathode at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona, which is owned and operated by Gunnison Copper. Rio Tinto said the technology uses microorganisms to extract copper from primary sulphide ores without the need for concentration, smelting or refining, and that the next phase will focus on multi-year testing and independent verification of long-term performance.

Policy Settings Shape the US Copper Landscape

US policy has increasingly framed copper as a strategic material. A presidential proclamation applied tariffs to certain semi-finished copper products and introduced domestic sales requirements for copper input materials and high-quality scrap, while a decision on a phased duty for refined copper was left pending further review. These measures form part of a broader push to strengthen domestic supply chains for critical materials.

For producers with US operations, the policy environment can bring both opportunities and complexity, as permitting timelines, community consultation and trade settings all influence project development. Long lead times between discovery, approval and production are a familiar feature of the copper industry, and US projects are no exception.

Final Word: A Long-Term Theme for Australian Majors

JPMorgan's reported view adds to the debate over whether the United States can rebuild its role as a significant copper producer. Rio Tinto and BHP have documented exposure to that theme through Kennecott, the proposed Arizona joint venture and Rio Tinto's Nuton technology, although key projects remain subject to permitting, studies and lengthy development timelines. For the Australian market, where both companies are major constituents of the resources sector, the developments highlight how global copper supply strategies continue to evolve.