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Risks Partly Materialised: How August's Upside Scenario Became September's Reality

The Board held the cash rate at 4.35% at its August 2026 meeting. The August SMP laid out the central forecast and stated that risks to the inflation outlook were skewed to the upside. Bullock's 28 October Senate statement described the August projection as …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Oil Shock 2.0: Why Renewed Middle East Conflict Is Feeding Into Australian Mortgage Rates

The minutes of the Board's 29 September 2026 meeting recorded that petrol and diesel prices were 13% above the August Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts. Central bank forecasts typically use current market prices for oil as a working assumption. When energy prices move sharply …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Underlying Inflation Has Sat at 3.5% for Six Months. Why That Persistence Matters.

The trimmed mean is an underlying inflation measure that removes the items with the largest price changes in each period before calculating the average. The aim is to see through temporary distortions, such as a sharp jump or fall in a single commodity, to …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Business Investment Up More Than 10%: Why Higher Rates Have Not Slowed Capital Spending

The minutes of the Board's 29 September 2026 meeting recorded business investment as rising more than 10% over the year. At the 28 October Senate hearing, Bullock identified the drivers: "Mainly we're seeing it in data centres and renewable energy." Both represent large capital …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

"High Inflation Hurts Everyone": The Cost the RBA Is Asking Mortgage Holders to Bear

Bullock did not soften the human cost in her Senate statement. She said: "Those who have mortgages, yes, this clearly impacts them and it hurts them." She went further at an earlier media appearance, framing the trade-off in terms that Sarah Hunter also used …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

45% Per Annum Forever: The AI Earnings Expectation Worrying Australia's Financial Stability Regulator

Jones was speaking on a panel at the AFR Super Summit in Melbourne on 26 October 2026, moderated by James Thompson. The panel included Scott Hartley (Insignia), Deanne Stewart (Aware Super), and Ian Patrick (Australian Retirement Trust). Jones cited the 45% per annum earnings …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Debt-Funded, Not Equity-Funded: Why the AI Boom's Financing Structure Worries the RBA

Jones contrasted the late 1990s technology boom with the current AI investment cycle. His description: the dotcom era was "principally equity financed." Investors bought shares in technology companies, and when valuations collapsed in 2000-2001, the losses were borne predominantly by those shareholders. Banks and …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

How could the ANAO's audit of ATO regulation change the experience of SMSF trustees?

• The association also asked the ANAO to review the ATO's public advice and guidance framework, including its use of non-binding web content.

Sonal Goyal | 28 October 2026

How can SMSF trustees still invest in residential property now that new LRBA borrowing is restricted?

• Existing arrangements are reported to be grandfathered, and contracts entered into before that date may settle under the earlier rules.

Sonal Goyal | 28 October 2026

When will SMSF trustees need to make the Division 296 cost-base election, and where will it be recorded?

• Division 296 applies at 15 per cent above $3 million and a further 10 per cent above $10 million of total super balance.

Sonal Goyal | 28 October 2026
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