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Five Questions the RBA Must Answer Before Its 3 November Rate Decision

Headline CPI rose 4.3% over the year to September 2026 on the monthly measure. The RBA's target range is 2-3%. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile price movements, has been around 3.5% for approximately six months according to Governor Bullock's 29 September media conference …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Will 4.60% Be Enough? The Test Bullock Set for the RBA's Tightening Cycle

Inflation peaked at 7.9% at the end of 2022 before falling back within the 2-3% target range during 2024 and 2025. It has since risen above the target range again, with headline CPI running at 4.3% in the September 2026 monthly measure and underlying …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Why the RBA Only Considered Two Options at Its September 2026 Meeting

The minutes of the 29 September Board meeting recorded that the Board considered only a 25 basis point increase or a hold. A larger increase was not on the agenda. This narrowing of options reflects the Board's practice of considering a defined set of …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Downside Risks to Jobs: The Employment Argument That Came Up at the September RBA Meeting

The September Board minutes recorded that members considered downside risks to employment as part of the deliberations. A case was made that these risks warranted holding the cash rate rather than increasing it. The argument reflected concern that the economy was already absorbing four …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Not a Single Dissent: Why a United RBA Board Matters for Rate Expectations

The minutes of the 29 September 2026 Board meeting list nine members present: Michele Bullock (Governor and Chair), Andrew Hauser (Deputy Governor and Deputy Chair), Marnie Baker AM, Melinda Cilento, Renee Fry-McKibbin, Carolyn Hewson AO, Bruce Preston, Iain Ross AO, and Jenny Wilkinson PSM. …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Equities Down 5%, Dollar Up 5%: What Australian Markets Did Between RBA Meetings

Between the September and November Board meetings, Australian equities fell around 5%. This decline occurred during a period in which the RBA's tightening cycle was continuing and global risk sentiment was being shaped by oil price rises, geopolitical developments, and concerns about AI-sector valuations.

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Mortgage Bills Back Near Their 2024 Peak: What the RBA's Data Shows About Household Stress

The minutes of the RBA Board's 29 September 2026 meeting recorded that scheduled mortgage payments were about 10% of household disposable income in aggregate. This figure includes all households, not just those with mortgages, which means the burden on mortgage-holding households is higher when …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

Why the RBA's Statement Says "If Required" and What That Means for Rate Cuts

The September decision statement recorded that "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down." The minutes captured this as the Board remaining prepared to respond, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required." These are statements …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

How a $550,000 Loan's Repayments Shift With Each 25 Basis Point Rate Move

The following figures are a hypothetical illustration by this publication only. They assume a loan of $550,000, a 30-year term, principal and interest repayments, and full pass-through of each 25 basis point rate change. They are not actual lender rates, not RBA projections, and …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026

From 3.60% to 4.60%: Charting the Year Australia's Interest Rates Rose Again

Three increases before the August pause took the cash rate from 3.60% at the start of 2026 to 4.35%. Each was a 25 basis point step, reflecting the Board's practice of moving in measured increments rather than larger adjustments. By mid-2026, the cumulative tightening …

Aditi Sarkar | 29 October 2026
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