Why Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) Has Guided to FY27 EBITDA of A$33 Million to A$40 Million Alongside a Strategy Reset

Sonal Goyal

23 October 2026 05:58 PM AEDT

Why Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) Has Guided to FY27 EBITDA of A$33 Million to A$40 Million Alongside a Strategy Reset

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Key Highlights

Temple & Webster set FY27 EBITDA guidance of A$33 million to A$40 million at its 2026 annual general meeting.
Year-to-date checkout Revenue to 19 October 2026 was down 8 per cent, while contribution Margin dollars were up 16 per cent.
FY26 revenue was A$665 million, up 11 per cent, with EBITDA of A$21.9 million and cash of A$123 million at 30 June 2026.

Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) used its 2026 Annual General Meeting to set FY27 EBITDA guidance of A$33 million to A$40 million, which the company said is roughly 50 to 80 per cent above FY26. It said growth initiatives are funded within that range and are moving from testing to roll-out. From FY28, it aims to return to sustainable double-digit revenue growth while keeping improved unit economics.

The trading update covered 1 July to 19 October 2026. Year-to-date checkout revenue was down 8 per cent on the prior corresponding period, while contribution margin dollars were up 16 per cent. The chief executive attributed this to deliberately reduced promotional depth and higher prices on some ranges. Run-rate revenue growth since the August update was minus 4 per cent, compared with minus 13 per cent at that time. The company said that from mid to late February 2027 comparisons will be against periods with similar promotional intensity, and it expects a return to growth then.

FY26 performance

The company recapped FY26 revenue of A$665 million, up 11 per cent, and EBITDA of A$21.9 million, up 17 per cent at a 3.3 per cent margin. Underlying EBITDA, which excludes significant items and unrealised foreign exchange losses, was A$25.9 million, up 28 per cent. Market Share rose from 2.7 per cent to 2.9 per cent, mostly in the first half, and the chair acknowledged weaker second-half trading. Operating Cash Flow was A$24 million. Cash at 30 June 2026 was A$123 million after A$30 million of share buy-backs, with no debt, and more than A$70 million has been returned to shareholders since 2023. Fixed costs fell from 12 per cent to 10 per cent of revenue over three years.

Strategy changes

Management said Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) is prioritising the mass-mid market and will reduce entry-level ranges over time, with more disciplined discounting. It set five priorities: a magnetic brand, distinctive product, leading experience, operational rigour, and scale for the future. Exclusive products account for more than half of revenue, and the company targets private label above 35 per cent of revenue.

On marketing, a Brisbane Brand campaign launched in July moved spending to roughly an even split between brand and performance, from 80 to 90 per cent performance previously. Against control markets, the company reported revenue up 7 per cent, traffic up 11 per cent and branded search share up 14 per cent, and the campaign is rolling out in Sydney and Melbourne. It said brand campaigns typically take six to 12 months to reach full impact. A test replacing about 200 entry-level manchester products with higher-quality private label lines lifted revenue by 8 per cent and delivered margin by 11 per cent, and the rollout is now extending across the catalogue.

The company also described five artificial intelligence personalisation programmes in use or testing. It reported that tailored delivery pricing adds about A$1.2 million of annualised margin and that personalised complementary recommendations lifted conversion on displayed items by 56 per cent. New Zealand is the first AI-led market test, with a dedicated site launching and contribution margin break-even expected within nine months of launch.

Governance and risks

Mark Coulter moved from chief executive to executive chair, Susie Sugden became chief executive on 1 July 2026, and Stephen Heath became lead independent director after ten years as chair. The board amended its charters on external advice to define these roles.

The presentation has no dedicated risk section, but the company described a challenging consumer environment and said revenue is currently declining. The guidance depends on the return to growth from late February 2027, and the new marketing, range and pricing changes and the New Zealand model are still being tested or rolled out. The company also cautioned that outcomes may differ materially from forward-looking statements.

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