Key Highlights:

  • HMC Capital (ASX:HMC) guided to FY27 underlying Earnings Per Share of at least 35 cents and a 15-cent dividend, and its shares jumped about 16% on results day.
  • Qualitas (ASX:QAL) posted record deployment of $6.5 billion and guided to 17–26% growth in normalised pre-tax profit, yet its shares fell about 5% on the day.
  • The RBA's 29 September meeting, bond yields and property-sector Credit stress are the key near-term swing factors for both.
  • Upcoming company updates and execution against stated plans remain central to the next phase for both stocks.

Interest rates, fundraising momentum and the health of Australia's property and credit markets are likely to shape the outlook for HMC Capital and Qualitas. Both reported growth in FY26 and guided to more in FY27, but a looming RBA decision and a jittery Bond Market mean investors are weighing that growth against rising funding costs.

Rates and bond yields set the tone for listed fund managers

Listed alternative asset managers tend to be sensitive to interest rates. Higher rates can lift the cost of capital, weigh on asset valuations and slow fundraising, although for private credit managers they can also lift the returns on offer to investors.

That tension is front of mind in late September. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.72% to 8,702 points on 24 September, with real estate among the biggest drags, as US Treasury yields hit a 19-year high in what the as a "bond market riot". The also reported that markets were pricing a very high chance of an RBA rate rise at the 29 September meeting, and that some analysts see the cash rate eventually reaching 5.1%. The cash rate is currently 4.35%, whose survey of economists leaned towards a hold.

The same day, the property developer Bathla had stopped all construction after lender support collapsed, and that Unemployment had risen to 4.6%. Neither event is linked to HMC or Qualitas, but they show the kind of credit and property risk the market is watching.

Neither stock changed index status in the September 2026 S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance, which took effect on 21 September.

HMC Capital (ASX:HMC): a reset around recurring earnings

HMC Capital is a diversified alternative asset manager. Its platforms span real estate (including listed REITs such as HomeCo Daily Needs REIT), private credit, digital infrastructure through DigiCo, and energy transition through Illuma.

The group reported FY26 results on 26 August. Operating earnings per share came in at 40.4 cents, in line with guidance, and fee-generating Assets under management reached $16.9 billion,

HMC also introduced a new "cash-backed" underlying EPS measure of 30.2 cents for FY26 and guided to at least 35 cents in FY27, plus a 15-cent dividend. Its Balance Sheet has been strengthened: gearing fell to 10.7% from 20.5% in December 2025, and the group cited about $1.9 billion of combined Liquidity and Investment capacity.

The market liked what it saw. The shares jumped about 16% to $3.41 on 26 August, placing them in the middle of a 52-week range of $2.16 to $4.62. That rebound followed a difficult 2025, with a report noting the shares had fallen about 50% during that year.

The key watch point is DigiCo, the listed data centre REIT HMC manages. A report said DigiCo's full-year loss deepened to $101 million and that it appointed new co-CEOs. DigiCo's valuation and capital needs influence HMC's fee base and co-investment returns.

Qualitas (ASX:QAL): strong growth, cautious reception

Qualitas is a specialist real estate private credit and Equity manager. It lends to property developers and investors through a mix of institutional mandates, wholesale funds and the listed Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund.

Its FY26 result on 20 August showed fee-earning funds under management up 36% to $11.9 billion and record deployment of $6.5 billion, . Funds management Revenue rose 27% to $85 million and net performance fees rose 70% to $13.7 million. Normalised net profit after tax increased 20% to $44.3 million, normalised EPS rose 19% to 14.7 cents, and the full-year Dividend increased 13% to 11.25 cents.

For FY27, Qualitas guided to normalised pre-tax profit of $74–80 million, or 17–26% growth, and normalised EPS of 17.2–18.6 cents. Even so, the shares fell about 5.4% to $3.16 on results day. That suggests investors had already priced in strong growth or were wary of the risks attached to property lending in a higher-rate environment.

What links the two managers

Both are growth-focused alternative asset managers whose earnings depend on growing fee-earning assets. Both have meaningful exposure to Australian real estate, and both have private credit businesses, a segment that has attracted closer scrutiny from regulators and investors as it has grown.

Their results-day reactions pointed in opposite directions. HMC's rally looked like relief after a tough 2025, helped by a stronger balance sheet and clearer earnings guidance. Qualitas' dip came despite higher guidance, a sign that expectations were already elevated. For both, the next leg is likely to depend less on what they have reported and more on whether capital keeps flowing into their funds as rates move.

What investors could watch next

RBA decision on 29 September: a rate rise could pressure property valuations and listed Fund Manager multiples, while supporting yields on private credit products.

Fundraising and deployment updates: quarterly FUM and AUM updates will show whether momentum is holding.

Credit quality: any sign of stress among property developers, and how Qualitas' Loan book performs, is likely to be closely watched.

DigiCo and HMC's REITs: asset valuations, capital raisings or asset sales across HMC's managed vehicles can affect its fees and co-investment returns.

Upcoming AGMs: both companies are expected to hold annual meetings later in the year, where guidance may be reaffirmed or updated.

The bottom line

HMC Capital and Qualitas enter the final quarter of 2026 with growing earnings bases and explicit FY27 guidance. The outlook for both is likely to hinge on the direction of interest rates, the flow of capital into alternative assets and the resilience of Australia's property market. HMC is rebuilding confidence after a sharp fall in 2025, while Qualitas must meet high expectations as a leader in real estate private credit.