Highlights

• The Australian Exchange processed 934,000 transactions in the September quarter, down 11.5 per cent.

• FY27 group Revenue guidance was lowered to A$355 million to A$380 million, from A$385 million to A$415 million.

• Core net profit after tax from continuing operations is now forecast between a loss of A$6 million and a profit of A$6 million.

• IPART's final report is due to be made public by 18 November 2026, ahead of a decision by the national regulator ARNECC.

How is PEXA Group (ASX:PXA) responding to a sharp fall in Australian property settlements while it waits on a regulatory decision about its fees? The company has answered by cutting its FY27 outlook, holding its UK spending plan steady and pressing ahead with new products, while warning that the pricing review remains a key unknown.

PEXA, an S&P/ASX 200 constituent, released its first-quarter FY27 trading update on 11 November 2026, the same day as its annual general meeting.

Guidance cut as transfer volumes fall

In the three months to 30 September 2026, PEXA's Australian Exchange processed 934,000 transactions, down 11.5% on the same quarter a year earlier.

Property transfers, the most valuable transaction type, fell 15.2% to 566,000. Refinances declined 6.4% to 233,000. The company said October transfer volumes were down 26% on the prior corresponding period, while refinance volumes were broadly flat.

PEXA lowered its FY27 guidance. Group revenue is now expected to be A$355 million to A$380 million, compared with A$385 million to A$415 million previously. The EBITDA Margin range moved to 29.0% to 31.5%, from 31.5% to 33.5%.

Core net profit after tax from continuing operations is now forecast at between a loss of A$6 million and a profit of A$6 million, down from A$5 million to A$20 million. Capital Expenditure guidance was narrowed to A$45 million to A$50 million, and international operating cash outflow guidance of A$55 million to A$65 million was reaffirmed.

PEXA said the margin had moved broadly in line with scenarios it presented with its FY26 results.

What PEXA does

PEXA runs Australia's dominant digital property settlement platform. Lawyers, conveyancers and lenders use the Exchange to lodge documents and settle property transactions electronically, and PEXA charges a regulated fee for each transaction.

The company says it handles about 90% of Australian property transfer settlements and connects more than 160 financial institutions. That gives it scale, but it also means revenue moves closely with housing turnover and refinancing.

The second division, International, is building a digital remortgage and conveyancing Business in England and Wales. It includes conveyancing firms Optima Legal and Smoove, and a platform Partnership with lender NatWest. That division is still loss-making.

FY26 results recap

For the year to 30 June 2026, PEXA reported group revenue of A$406.9 million and EBITDA of A$151.7 million. Statutory profit from continuing operations was A$19.2 million. After a A$35.1 million loss from discontinued operations, largely impairments linked to the Digital Solutions businesses it agreed to sell, the statutory net loss was A$15.9 million.

Free Cash Flow rose to A$93.5 million, net Debt fell to A$158.7 million and Leverage eased to 1.0 times EBITDA. Debt facilities were extended to A$330 million, maturing between 2029 and 2031.

The Australian Exchange generated A$345.6 million of revenue and A$192.8 million of EBITDA, with operating expenses broadly flat at A$107.7 million. Because much of that cost base does not shrink when volumes fall, lower transaction numbers can weigh on margins, a point relevant to the revised margin range. International revenue was A$61.3 million, with an EBITDA loss of A$41.1 million.

On 30 October 2026, PEXA confirmed it had completed the sale of Value Australia, a transaction first announced in August. The completion notice did not disclose the buyer or the price.

The IPART fee review

The biggest uncertainty is regulatory. In July 2026, the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) published a draft report that proposed a 20% reduction in regulated revenue for electronic lodgment network operators from FY28, with CPI increases thereafter. Current fee caps remain in place through FY27.

PEXA lodged a submission in August with independent expert reports proposing alternative methods for assessing its fees and rate of return.

According to PEXA's latest update, IPART delivered its final report to the NSW Premier on 30 October 2026, and it is due to be made public by 18 November 2026. The national regulator ARNECC will then decide whether PEXA's prices should change, and by how much. PEXA has said that process may take several months.

The uncertainty has also shaped governance decisions. PEXA deferred setting earnings-per-share targets for part of its CEO's long-term incentive until the outcome is known.

UK progress and new products

In the UK, Optima Legal's remortgage completions rose 12.7% in the September quarter to 15,400. Smoove's remortgage completions fell 17.8% to 7,400, and its sale and purchase completions slipped to 5,300.

PEXA delivered digital remortgage capability for NatWest in March 2026, ahead of schedule. It expects the first NatWest sale and purchase transaction on its platform by the end of March 2027.

At home, PEXA Clear began earning revenue in the quarter after new anti-money laundering obligations for property professionals began on 1 July 2026. The company also said Northern Territory transfer capability was due to launch in the week of 9 November.

Competitive position

ARNECC confirmed in March 2026 that the national eConveyancing interoperability program would not proceed. That removed one potential source of change to PEXA's market position, though the company still operates under close pricing oversight and alongside a smaller rival operator, Sympli.

In the UK, PEXA's share of remortgage activity has been affected as lenders spread volumes across more conveyancers. Gaining broader lender and conveyancer adoption remains the main challenge for that division.

Risks and what to watch

The most immediate event is the public release of IPART's final report, followed by ARNECC's decision. Any fee reduction would affect the Exchange from FY28, so the size and phasing of a cut matter more than its timing.

Property volumes are the second variable. The October fall in transfers suggests conditions remain soft, and further weakness could pressure the revised guidance.

UK execution is the third. The division continues to consume cash, and investors may watch for evidence that NatWest's sale and purchase rollout and additional lender adoption can narrow losses.

PEXA's half-year results, due in early 2027, should provide the next full read on earnings, the fee outcome and the UK strategy.