Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG), an Australian energy retailer, generator and gas business, has recorded a decline in its share price over the past year. Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG) shares were priced at $11.01, up 1.20% in today’s session, and are down 10.99% over the past year. The company released its full-year results for FY26 on 13 August 2026, reporting lower Underlying Profit alongside higher statutory profit and free cash flow.

Business Model and Operational Footprint

Origin operates Energy Markets, which retails electricity and gas to households and businesses and owns generation including the Eraring Power Station, and Integrated Gas, which comprises its interest in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) and LNG trading. It also holds an interest in Octopus Energy, a UK retailer, and Kraken Technologies, the software platform that serves energy retailers.

Origin added 243,000 retail customer accounts in FY26. It has 1.3 GW and 4.1 GWh of large-scale batteries operational as at August out of a total 1.8 GW development program. Octopus Energy grew customer accounts by 2.2 million to 19 million, and Kraken Technologies’ contracted accounts grew to 95 million. Kraken formally separated from Octopus Energy and completed a US$1 billion standalone Equity raise in July 2026 at a US$8.65 billion look-through valuation, to which Origin contributed $210 million, giving it a 22.7% economic interest across Octopus and Kraken.

Sector Dynamics

Energy retailers and generators are exposed to wholesale electricity prices, regulated retail tariffs, coal and gas costs and the build-out of renewables and storage. Gas producers are exposed to oil-linked LNG prices and trading margins. Origin states that flexible generation and storage will become more important as more renewable energy enters the grid.

Origin’s 10.99% one-year decline compares with a 17.89% gain for APA Group (ASX:APA), another energy infrastructure company, and a 13.94% gain for Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX:EVN). Origin is up 1.20% today at $11.01.

Among the 20 ASX-listed companies in this group of results, Origin Energy Ltd’s one-year change of down 10.99% ranks 11 of 20, where 1 is the strongest performer over the period.

FY26 Results Release

Statutory profit was $1,574 million, compared with $1,481 million. Underlying profit was $1,159 million, compared with $1,490 million, reflecting an expected reduction in commodity-linked Earnings from Integrated Gas and higher Depreciation and amortisation, partly offset by improvements in Energy Markets. Underlying EBITDA was $3,220 million, compared with $3,411 million, with Integrated Gas lower from lower realised oil prices and lower LNG trading gains. Adjusted free Cash Flow rose $867 million to $2,074 million. Adjusted net Debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA was 1.6x.

The fully franked final Dividend is 30 cents per share, bringing the total FY26 dividend to 60 cents per share, fully franked. Retail cost-to-serve was delivered within the targeted range.

FY27 guidance includes Energy Markets EBITDA of $1,550 million to $1,850 million, APLNG production of 625 to 670 petajoules on a 100% basis, Kraken Technologies Revenue growth of more than 20% and total Origin Capital Expenditure of $450 million to $650 million, with lower growth capital as the battery program completes. Guidance assumes stated market conditions and regulatory settings.

Origin states that its Octopus Energy Business expects to continue scaling profitably in the UK, and that Kraken’s subscription gross revenue is expected to grow. Capital expenditure of $450 million to $650 million for FY27 compares with the larger battery and generation programs of prior years. The Eraring Future Directions program includes increased ash re-use at the power station.

Growth Catalysts and Critical Operating Risks

Growth catalysts identified include the battery development program, Energy Markets earnings, Octopus Energy’s scaling, Kraken’s growth, progress at Eraring under the Future Directions program and cash generation that supports ongoing Investment and dividends.

Operating risks include lower oil prices and LNG trading gains in Integrated Gas, the effect of lower wholesale prices on Energy Markets in FY27, field decline at APLNG, higher depreciation, regulatory settings affecting retail and the costs of transition. Underlying profit fell 22% in FY26. Origin’s Octopus and Kraken interests are exposed to the UK market and to a newly separated company’s funding.

Where Things Stand

Origin reports lower underlying profit and EBITDA, higher cash flow and a 60 cent dividend, while its shares are lower over twelve months. Reference points ahead include FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA against $1,550 million to $1,850 million and battery commissioning.