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Highlights

  • Treasury Wine Estates revises FY25 earnings guidance to $770 million, down from $780 million.

  • Weak US consumer demand and economic uncertainty weigh on premium wine shipments.

  • Major distributor RNDC exits California, but company expects no material impact on FY25 results.

Australia’s Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), the nation’s largest wine producer, has revised its full-year earnings forecast downward, citing weaker-than-expected premium wine shipments in the United States.

The company announced that it now anticipates earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the 2025 financial year to be around $770 million, slightly lower than its earlier guidance of approximately $780 million. The 1.3% revision comes amid continued challenges in the US market, where a combination of economic uncertainty and softening consumer demand is affecting sales volumes, particularly in the sub-US$15 ($23 AUD) price category.

“The downgrade reflects recent trends in the US market, where demand for wines below the $15 mark has weakened,” Treasury Wine stated in a market update. “The ongoing economic environment is contributing to cautious consumer spending patterns, which is impacting premium wine shipments.”

Distributor Shake-Up in California

Adding to the challenges in the United States, Treasury Wine confirmed that its long-standing distributor, Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC), will cease operations in California effective 2 September 2025. The move is significant given RNDC California accounted for approximately 25% of Treasury Americas’ net sales revenue and around 10% of the group’s overall net sales revenue in the first half of FY25.

Despite the size of RNDC’s role in its US operations, Treasury Wine sought to reassure investors and stakeholders that the distributor’s withdrawal from California is not expected to materially affect the company’s full-year results. The company said it is actively working on alternative distribution strategies to maintain its market presence in the state.

Global Outlook Remains Stable

Outside the US, Treasury Wine continues to perform solidly, particularly in Asian and domestic Australian markets, where premium wine categories remain in demand. The company’s strategy to focus on premiumisation — targeting higher-end consumers with luxury wine brands such as Penfolds — has helped cushion broader market volatility.