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Highlights
- Jefferies and Macquarie both maintain bullish views with target prices above current levels.
- Underlying EBITDA rose 9.1% in 1H25, supported by new assets and inflation-linked revenues.
- APA reaffirms FY25 EBITDA and distribution guidance.
Analyst coverage for APA Group (ASX:APA) reflects a positive outlook, with Jefferies and Macquarie Research both maintaining bullish stances. Jefferies has issued a “BUY” recommendation with a target price of AUD 8.44, representing a modest 1.69% upside from the current trading price. Meanwhile, an analyst from Macquarie Research has rated APA as “OUTPERFORM,” setting a slightly lower target price of AUD 8.14.
APA is one of Australia’s leading natural gas infrastructure providers. In the half-year ending 31 December 2024 (1HFY25), APA reported a 9.1% YoY increase in underlying EBITDA, reaching $1,015 million for 1H25, compared to $930 million in the prior corresponding period. The performance was primarily driven by higher seasonal gas transmission demand, contributions from new assets including the Pilbara Energy System, and inflation-linked tariff escalations.
Total statutory revenue (excluding pass-through revenue) rose 7.1% YoY to $1,364 million, supported by predictable earnings streams and volume growth. Corporate cost growth was effectively contained to below inflation, with company-wide cost-reduction programs beginning to deliver results.
The interim distribution increased 1.9% to 27.0 cents per security, with APA reaffirming its FY25 full-year distribution guidance of 57.0 cents, up 1.8% from FY24. Underlying EBITDA guidance for FY25 remains in the range of $1,960 million to $2,020 million.
Strategic Asset Base of APA
- $27 billion+ diversified asset portfolio spanning gas, electricity, and renewable energy infrastructure underpinned by long-term contracted capacity.
- 90% of revenues inflation-linked, providing earnings stability and predictability.
- $1.8 billion organic growth pipeline for FY25–FY27, fully funded from operating cash flow and the existing balance sheet.
- A significant $100 billion+ addressable market, allowing APA to focus on high-return investments across energy transition-related sectors.
The company also maintains 75% EBITDA margins.





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