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Highlight

  • Bega Cheese has received BUY or POSITIVE ratings from E&P and Bell Potter.

  • Bell Potter set a price target of AUD 7.00, indicating 25% upside from current levels.

  • FY25 guidance reaffirms confidence, with EBITDA forecast at the upper end of $190–200 million range and a 6.0 cent interim dividend declared.

     

     

ASX-listed dairy and food company Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX:BGA) has significant backing from equity analysts following significant first-half FY25 results, with multiple BUY and POSITIVE recommendations reflecting confidence in the company’s fundamentals and growth trajectory.

Bega, which has been a staple of Australia’s food manufacturing sector since 1899 and listed on the ASX in 2011, operates across two key business segments—Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment processes nearly 800 million litres of milk annually into a portfolio of household names including Vegemite, Yoplait, Dairy Farmers, Big M, and Masters Iced Coffee. Meanwhile, the Bulk segment supports its operations with approximately 550 million litres of milk, supplying milk components primarily to support the Branded segment’s production.

Recent analyst activity has been encouraging. According to the latest data, Bell Potter Securities assigned a 2-BUY rating to Bega shares on 12 October 2023, reaffirmed in June 2025, and placed a price target of AUD 7.00, implying a 25% upside from the current market price of AUD 5.60. E&P’s Phillip Kimber also maintained a 2-POSITIVE stance with a target price of AUD 6.03, representing a 7.68% upside.

These endorsements contribute to a current average target price of AUD 6.00, reflecting a 7.14% premium to the current trading level. The consensus recommendation stands at 2.5 (BUY).

The bullish sentiment follows Bega’s performance in 1H FY2025, where it reported a 27% increase in EBITDA to $109.3 million, up $23.2 million from the prior comparable period. Revenue reached $1.8 billion, up 3% year-on-year, supported by a meaningful recovery in its Bulk segment.

Shareholders were rewarded with an interim fully franked dividend of 6.0 cents per share, paid on 3 April 2025, with the company activating its Dividend Reinvestment Plan for this payout.

Looking ahead, the company reaffirmed its full-year EBITDA guidance of $190–200 million, expecting results at the upper end of this range. Management cited continued emphasis on cost-saving initiatives, cash flow optimisation, and innovation as key pillars to offset inflationary pressures. The Branded segment is forecast to remain resilient, while the majority of Bulk earnings are concentrated in the first half due to milk intake seasonality.

Despite trailing the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index over the last five years—up 21% versus the index’s 47%—Bega Cheese’s strategic positioning in consumer staples, steady dividend income, and analyst confidence suggest that its longer-term prospects remain intact.