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Highlights
- Jefferies and Macquarie maintain positive ratings, forecasting up to 29% upside on AGL stock.
- FY25 earnings guidance narrowed, reflecting positive results in first half but softer second-half expectations due to seasonal and financial headwinds.
- Strategic investments like Kaluza and a 7GW development pipeline support long-term growth.
AGL Energy Ltd (ASX:AGL) continues to receive a cautious yet stable view from analysts. Jefferies has assigned a “buy” rating with a price target of AUD 13.32, which represents a 29.32% premium to the current share price. Macquarie Research rates AGL as “outperform” with a price target of AUD 11.47, reflecting an 11.36% upside.
Despite one-off charges and a conservative earnings outlook, brokers are maintaining a wait-and-see stance as the company pushes through its transformation strategy.
Guidance Narrowed
AGL has narrowed its FY25 earnings guidance:
- Underlying EBITDA is now forecast between AUD 1,935 million and AUD 2,135 million (narrowed from AUD 1,870 and AUD 2,170 million)
- Underlying NPAT is expected between AUD 580 million and AUD 710 million (narrowed from AUD 530-730 million)
This revision reflects encouraging performance in first half and expectations of softer results in the second half due to seasonal demand drops, competition in the customer segment, and increased depreciation and finance costs.
Financial performance in first half
In 1HFY25, AGL’s statutory profit after tax stood at AUD 97 million, weighed down by AUD 245 million in significant items. Underlying EBITDA stood at AUD 1,068 million and underlying NPAT dropped by 7% YoY to AUD 373 million.
Despite these charges, the company declared a fully franked interim dividend of 23 cents per share.
The company’s total generation volume reached 15.9 TWh, in line with 1H24, showing stability in operational output.
Strategic Progress
AGL’s 20% investment in Kaluza, completed in January, is seen as a long-term strategic move to boost innovation and digital capability. Should Kaluza scale up, analysts believe it could enhance AGL’s value proposition.
In terms of long-term energy infrastructure, AGL has expanded its development pipeline to 7GW, reinforcing its shift towards cleaner and future-ready energy solutions.





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