Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) shareholders have done very well over the last year, with the share price soaring by 126%. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

Given its strong share price performance, we think it's worthwhile for Aurora Innovation shareholders to consider whether its cash burn is concerning. For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

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How Long Is Aurora Innovation's Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. When Aurora Innovation last reported its March 2025 balance sheet in May 2025, it had zero debt and cash worth US$1.2b. In the last year, its cash burn was US$637m. That means it had a cash runway of around 22 months as of March 2025. Notably, analysts forecast that Aurora Innovation will break even (at a free cash flow level) in about 4 years. Essentially, that means the company will either reduce its cash burn, or else require more cash. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.NasdaqGS:AUR Debt to Equity History May 11th 2025

Check out our latest analysis for Aurora Innovation

How Is Aurora Innovation's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Aurora Innovation didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. Cash burn was pretty flat over the last year, which suggests that management are holding spending steady while the business advances its strategy. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Hard Would It Be For Aurora Innovation To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Since its cash burn is increasing (albeit only slightly), Aurora Innovation shareholders should still be mindful of the possibility it will require more cash in the future. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

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Since it has a market capitalisation of US$13b, Aurora Innovation's US$637m in cash burn equates to about 4.9% of its market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

So, Should We Worry About Aurora Innovation's Cash Burn?

On this analysis of Aurora Innovation's cash burn, we think its cash burn relative to its market cap was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Based on the factors mentioned in this article, we think its cash burn situation warrants some attention from shareholders, but we don't think they should be worried. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 3 warning signs for Aurora Innovation (of which 2 are concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this freelist of companies with significant insider holdings, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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