The recent earnings posted by MINISO Group Holding Limited (NYSE:MNSO) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.

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Zooming In On MINISO Group Holding's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to December 2024, MINISO Group Holding recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥1.4b in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥2.62b. MINISO Group Holding shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On MINISO Group Holding's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think MINISO Group Holding's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that MINISO Group Holding's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for MINISO Group Holding (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be familiar with.

Story Continues

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of MINISO Group Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or  this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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