The recent earnings posted by Greggs plc (LON:GRG) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Greggs. Read for free now.LSE:GRG Earnings and Revenue History April 23rd 2025

Examining Cashflow Against Greggs' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Greggs has an accrual ratio of 0.21 for the year to December 2024. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. To wit, it produced free cash flow of UK£70m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of UK£153.4m. Greggs' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Greggs' Profit Performance

Greggs' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Greggs' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 31% over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Be aware that Greggs is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those don't sit too well with us...

Story Continues

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Greggs' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or  this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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