It hasn't been the best quarter for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 13% in that time. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 633% in that time. So we don't think the recent decline in the share price means its story is a sad one. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Vistra achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 34% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 49% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).NYSE:VST Earnings Per Share Growth May 13th 2025

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Vistra the TSR over the last 5 years was 730%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

Story Continues

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Vistra has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 63% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 53% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Vistra better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Vistra that you should be aware of before investing here.

Vistra is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this freelist of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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