United Airlines UAL and Copa Holdings CPA  are two well-known names in the Zacks Transportation- Airline industry. United Airlines, based in Chicago, is a founding member of the world's largest alliance network, Star Alliance. UAL operates both domestically and internationally. UAL, by its vast network, is responsible for connecting around 174 million passengers to more than 360 destinations across six continents.

On the other hand, Copa Holdings is based in Panama City, Panama. The company, through its main subsidiaries, offers airline passenger and cargo services.

Given this backdrop, let’s examine closely to find out which airline heavyweight currently holds the edge, and more importantly, which might be the smarter investment now.

The Case for UAL Stock

United Airlines is suffering from the tariff-induced slowdown in domestic air travel demand. Naturally, in the first quarter of 2025, Domestic travel was soft. International revenues remained strong in the March quarter, owing to the buoyant demand for long-haul travel. Atlantic unit revenues, or revenue per available seat mile and Pacific revenue per available seat mile were up 4.7% and 8.5% on a year-over-year basis. UAL serves the most international destinations among U.S. carriers. 

Given the market uncertainty and lack of clarity, United Airlines has offered 2025 earnings per share guidance for two scenarios. In case of a stable market environment, United Airlines expects 2025 adjusted EPS between $11.50 and $13.50. In a recessionary environment, UAL expects 2025 adjusted EPS between $7 and $9. 

To combat the weak demand scenario, UAL intends to reduce off-peak flying on lower-demand days. To that end, UAL aims to remove 4 points of scheduled domestic capacity, starting in the third quarter of 2025. High labor costs (expenses on salaries and related costs were up 12.8% in 2024) and a very large but aging fleet raise concerns. Delivery delays, predominantly of the 737 MAX, due to production issues at Boeing BA, hampered UAL’s fleet-related plans. United Airlines flies the Boeing 737 MAX in its fleet, specifically the MAX 8 and MAX 9 variants. Following a series of safety-related incidents, the regulatory body has intensified its scrutiny of Boeing’s 737 MAX variants. 

For 2025, UAL expects to receive multiple Boeing 737 MAX jets. It also expects to receive other jets to modernize its fleet. This will require substantial capex (expected to be less than $6.5 billion in 2025).

Even in this uncertain scenario, UAL is being well-served by the decline in fuel costs. Investor-friendly initiatives add another layer of appeal. In October 2024, United Airlines announced a $1.5 billion share buyback plan, highlighting its pro-shareholder approach. This was the first buyback program announced by UAL since suspending share repurchases during the COVID-19 pandemic. UAL repurchased shares worth $451 million through April 10.

Despite the tough conditions, the airline demonstrated resilience and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the past four quarters. The average beat is 10.3%.

Story Continues

United Airlines Price and EPS SurpriseUnited Airlines Holdings Inc Price and EPS Surprise

United Airlines price-eps-surprise | United Airlines Quote

The Case for CPA Stock

Improvement in air-travel demand following the end of the pandemic and normalization of economic activities bodes well for Copa Holdings' top line. To meet the upbeat demand, CPA is boosting capacity. 

For 2025, CPA expects consolidated capacity to grow 7-8% year over year and the operating margin is expected to be in the range of 21-23%. CPA's fleet expansion and modernization initiatives are commendable. CPA expects to end 2025 with 125 aircraft and 2026 with 131 aircraft.

Copa Holdings' liquidity position is also encouraging. The airline ended first-quarter 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $916.3 million, much higher than the current debt level of $232.4 million. This implies that the company has sufficient cash to meet its current debt obligations.

Despite the tough conditions, the airline demonstrated resilience and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the past four quarters. The average beat is 5.5%.

Copa Holdings Price and EPS SurpriseCopa Holdings, S.A. Price and EPS Surprise

Copa Holdings price-eps-surprise | Copa Holdings Quote

CPA’s Price Performance is Better Than UAL

Due to the slowdown in air travel demand in the United States, the U.S.-based United Airlines stock has declined significantly in the year-to-date period. The Latin American Copa Holdings has performed much better on the price front, gaining in double digits and even outperforming the industrial level.

YTD Price ComparisonZacks Investment Research

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How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for UAL & CPA?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL’s 2025 and 2026 sales implies a year-over-year increase of 3% and 8.4%, respectively. The consensus mark for UAL’s 2025 EPS highlights a 5.9% year-over-year drop. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS shows a 22.3% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending southward over the past 30 days.Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year increase of 4.5% and 8.1%, respectively. The consensus mark for CPA’s 2025 EPS highlights a 14.3% year-over-year uptick. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS  shows a 7.5% year-over-year increase. Moreover, the EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending northward over the past 30 days, reflecting analysts' bullishness on CPA.Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

The uncertainty and the resultant slowdown in air-travel demand have hit the U.S.-based United Airlines harder. The dual outlook given by the management highlights its uncertain prospects. On the other hand, the Latin American Copa Holdings seems to have performed better with respect to air travel demand due to factors like regional economic expansion, better adaptation to market trends, and focus on innovative strategies. Given these factors, CPA seems a better pick than UAL now. 

While CPA sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), UAL has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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