Explore Transurban Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

As you might know, Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at AU$3.8b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 77%, coming in at just AU$0.043 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Transurban Group's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$4.10b in 2026. This would be a solid 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$4.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.18 in 2026. Overall, while there's been a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Transurban Group

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of AU$14.18, with Transurban Group seemingly executing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Transurban Group at AU$16.10 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$12.88. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Transurban Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Transurban Group'shistorical trends, as the 8.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that Transurban Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. They also downgraded Transurban Group's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$14.18, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of Transurban Group's nine analysts has provided estimates out to 2028, which can be seen for free  on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Transurban Group (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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