It's been a good week for STAAR Surgical Company (NASDAQ:STAA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.0% to US$19.42. Revenues of US$43m beat expectations by a respectable 5.7%, although statutory losses per share increased. STAAR Surgical lost US$1.10, which was 59% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering STAAR Surgical is for revenues of US$256.9m in 2025. This implies a small 8.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.58 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$260.4m and losses of US$1.35 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

See our latest analysis for STAAR Surgical

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.00, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on STAAR Surgical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.00 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the STAAR Surgical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 10% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - STAAR Surgical is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at STAAR Surgical. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on STAAR Surgical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for STAAR Surgical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our  analysis of STAAR Surgical's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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