TFI International Inc. (TSE:TFII) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. TFI International missed earnings this time around, with US$2.0b revenue coming in 4.5% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.66 also fell short of expectations by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about TFI International. View them for free.TSX:TFII Earnings and Revenue Growth April 25th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the 15 analysts covering TFI International provided consensus estimates of US$8.22b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 3.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 8.2% to US$4.22 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.89 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for TFI International

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$142, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on TFI International's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic TFI International analyst has a price target of CA$177 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$102. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.2% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - TFI International is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TFI International. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for TFI International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for TFI International that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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