Serbian Parliament Doesn't Pass Lithium Ban, Keeps Rio Tinto's Major Project Alive

The Serbian parliament didn't accept the opposition's proposal to modify the country's mining law to ban the exploration and exploitation of lithium and boron. Such a decision would have ended Rio Tinto's (NYSE:RIO) multi-billion dollar Jadar project.

After a four-day discussion, the 214 members voted as follows: 84 voted yes, 128 voted no, two didn't vote.

"Forbidding exploration and exploitation of lithium and other mineral goods would create ripple effects, not only in Serbian economy but in its geopolitical positioning, "said Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Dedovic Handanovic, per Slobodna Evropa's report.

The Jadar deposit, discovered in 2004, is one of the largest lithium deposits in the world. According to estimates, it contains 118 million tons of ore grading 1.8% lithium oxide in mineral form.

However, its unique mineral form also creates issues for extraction technology, making the latest direct lithium extraction (DLE) advancements inapplicable.

Faced with large environmental protests, the government revoked licenses in January 2022 before reinstating them earlier this year. Still, environmentalists' backlash remains despite Rio Tinto's guarantees that the project will be subject to stringent environmental requirements and compliant with Serbian and EU regulations.

Even if everything goes right, mines take time to develop, and it is unlikely Rio Tinto will start production in Serbia before 2028. Thus, its latest acquisition of Arcadium (NYSE:ALTM) makes sense.

Arcadium has a global operation spanning five continents. It has lithium assets in Australia and Argentina, alongside downstream conversion assets in the U.S., China, Japan, and the U.K.

Geographical diversity aligns with Rio Tinto's global orientation, giving it a presence in Argentina—a rapidly growing lithium market—while also strengthening its domestic assets. Furthermore, with Rio Tinto's technical expertise, Arcadium's 75,000-ton production capacity could grow as much as 130% by 2028.

Meanwhile, initial production estimates placed Serbia's Jadar at 58,000 tons. Thus, a 90% premium to market cap with $6.7 billion in cash for Ardacium's assets and technology seemed like a good bet, especially given its enterprise value of $10.6 billion at the time of its creation and the lithium's current price, which is over 80% off its 2022 highs.

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