Investors in The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.1% to close at US$32.67 following the release of its first-quarter results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$2.6b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 62%, coming in at US$0.75 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Mosaic. Read for free now.NYSE:MOS Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2025

After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Mosaic are now predicting revenues of US$12.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 121% to US$2.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.36 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.0% to US$34.59per share. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mosaic at US$44.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Mosaic's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Mosaic is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mosaic following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mosaic analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Mosaic that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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