Shareholders in The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAIN) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 48% to US$1.58 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$390m missing analyst predictions by 4.7%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$1.49 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Hain Celestial Group's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$1.56b in 2026, which would reflect a noticeable 3.1% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Hain Celestial Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.068 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.42 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Hain Celestial Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 34% to US$3.71. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hain Celestial Group at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.50. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 4.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Hain Celestial Group to suffer worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hain Celestial Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hain Celestial Group's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Hain Celestial Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Hain Celestial Group has  2 warning signs  we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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