A week ago, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 11% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$318m, while EPS were US$0.65 beating analyst models by 40%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Hilltop Holdings' four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.22b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 3.9% to US$2.07. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.74 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for Hilltop Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$33.33, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hilltop Holdings analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Hilltop Holdings' top line has shrunk approximately 12% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.1% per year. Although Hilltop Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hilltop Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hilltop Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hilltop Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Hilltop Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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