AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 11% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$322m, while EPS were US$0.35 beating analyst models by 51%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about AAON. View them for free.NasdaqGS:AAON Earnings and Revenue Growth May 4th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AAON's six analysts is for revenues of US$1.42b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.3% to US$2.11. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.14 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for AAON

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$110. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AAON at US$125 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$96.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AAON's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 17% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while AAON's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AAON. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AAON analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that  AAON is showing  1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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