Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.9% to hit US$1.4b. Regal Rexnord also reported a statutory profit of US$0.86, which was an impressive 62% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Regal Rexnord's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$5.86b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 36% to US$4.79. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.53 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Regal Rexnord

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$160, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Regal Rexnord, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$180 and the most bearish at US$125 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Regal Rexnord shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Regal Rexnord's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Regal Rexnord following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Regal Rexnord analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Regal Rexnord that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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