Shareholders of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$122 following its latest first-quarter results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.08 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$573m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Neurocrine Biosciences from 22 analysts is for revenues of US$2.69b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 28% to US$3.97. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.95 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$159, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Neurocrine Biosciences, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$192 and the most bearish at US$115 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Neurocrine Biosciences' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Neurocrine Biosciences is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Neurocrine Biosciences analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Neurocrine Biosciences that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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