Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$502m were better than expected, some 12% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost a statutory US$0.50 per share, although the losses were 19% smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Natera. Read for free now.NasdaqGS:NTRA Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Natera's 20 analysts is for revenues of US$1.97b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 7.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 58% to US$2.21 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.92b and losses of US$2.13 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Natera

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$192, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Natera analyst has a price target of US$251 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$37.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Natera's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Natera's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 10.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 33% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Natera is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$192, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Natera analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Natera that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments