There's been a major selloff in Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MYGN) shares in the week since it released its first-quarter report, with the stock down 42% to US$4.27. Myriad Genetics' revenues suffered a miss, falling 2.3% short of forecasts, at US$196m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) however performed much better, reaching break-even. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Myriad Genetics after the latest results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Myriad Genetics. View them for free.NasdaqGS:MYGN Earnings and Revenue Growth May 8th 2025

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Myriad Genetics is for revenues of US$811.5m in 2025. This implies a small 2.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to US$0.55. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$846.0m and losses of US$0.79 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Myriad Genetics

The consensus price target fell 31% to US$10.54, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Myriad Genetics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that Myriad Genetics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Myriad Genetics' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Myriad Genetics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  2 warning signs for Myriad Genetics  you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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