Shareholders might have noticed that Matson, Inc. (NYSE:MATX) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.9% to US$99.26 in the past week. Revenues of US$782m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.18, missing estimates by 3.8%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Matson. Read for free now.NYSE:MATX Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Matson, is for revenues of US$3.15b in 2025. This implies an uneasy 9.6% reduction in Matson's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 48% to US$8.23 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.24 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Matson

The consensus price target fell 12% to US$135, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Matson analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$125. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 13% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.2% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Matson, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Matson. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Matson is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Matson's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Matson going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that  Matson is showing  2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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