It's been a mediocre week for Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$27.18 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$831m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Match Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.44 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Match Group. Read for free now.NasdaqGS:MTCH Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2025

Following last week's earnings report, Match Group's 22 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.44b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 4.2% to US$2.13 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.06 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Match Group

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$34.77, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Match Group at US$46.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Match Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Match Group following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Match Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Match Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  3 warning signs for Match Group  you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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