The first-quarter results for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$0.54 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$350m came in 2.3% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Magnolia Oil & Gas' eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.33b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 9.7% to US$1.83 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.97 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas

The consensus price target held steady at US$25.80, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Magnolia Oil & Gas, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$19.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Magnolia Oil & Gas' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Magnolia Oil & Gas. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Magnolia Oil & Gas' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Magnolia Oil & Gas going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Magnolia Oil & Gas' balance sheet, and whether we think Magnolia Oil & Gas is carrying too much debt, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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