Shareholders might have noticed that Lumine Group Inc. (CVE:LMN) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to CA$29.87 in the past week. Revenues US$187m disappointed slightly, at2.0% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of US$0.10 coming in 12% above what was anticipated. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lumine Group's three analysts is for revenues of US$918.8m in 2026. This would reflect a huge 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.4% to US$0.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$933.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.42 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Lumine Group

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.1% to CA$54.50, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lumine Group at CA$59.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$50.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lumine Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 31% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Lumine Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Lumine Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Lumine Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock,  here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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